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惠誉:中国人民币国际化进程已放缓
May 12, 2017 / 10:14 AM / 4 months ago

惠誉:中国人民币国际化进程已放缓

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, May 12 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年5月1日发布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1023004">Fitch: Chinese Renminbi Internationalisation Has Slowed 惠誉评级表示,尽管2016年底人民币被纳入国际货币基金组织的特别提款权货币篮子具有里程碑意义,但是过去两年内,人民币成为更重要的国际货币的进程已有所放缓。控制资 金外流的政策以及对货币贬值的持续担忧,可能会在短期内限制人民币国际化。尽管如此,央行持有人民币逐渐增多仍然会支撑中国的评级状况。 货币在全球官方外汇储备资产组合中具有重要作用的国家不太可能受到外部融资压力,反映出以其货币计价资产的需求稳定。惠誉的“储备货币灵活性”指标将这一因素纳入主权评级 考量范围。该指标是基于国际货币基金组织的官方外汇储备货币构成调查所公布的单一货币在全球储备中所占的比重。 2017年3月,官方外汇储备货币构成调查首次将人民币列入其中。调查显示,截至2016年底,央行共持有845亿人民币计价的官方外汇资产,相当于总外汇储备的1.1% 。该比例高于瑞士法郎,但远低于该调查中包括的其它货币(参见下表)。 <iframe allowfullscreen src="//e.infogr.am/official_foreign_currency_assets?src=embed" title="Official foreign currency assets" width="550" height="649" scrolling="no" frameborder="0"> 该调查显示,过去两年内,人民币计价资产在央行储备组合中的比重稍降,而根据此前的一份专项调查,在这个十年初,人民币的比重曾显着上升,从2012年底时的0.7%升至 2014年底时的1.1%。SWIFT的数据同样显示出人民币国际化进程放缓,2017年3月,以人民币计价的国际货币支付比例从2016年3月的2.0%下降至1.8% 。尽管如此,根据中央国债登记结算有限责任公司(中央结算公司)的数据,中国政府债券的外部持有比例在此期间由3.0%上升至3.9%。 人民币国际化是过去十年内政府为增强中国的经济影响力所做出的重要努力之一。鉴于中国经济对全球的重要性以及互联性,人民币成为储备货币和国际汇兑货币的长期潜力仍然很大 。但是,惠誉认为,如果资本账户开放对国内金融稳定性构成风险,政府将不会继续进行。因此,惠誉预计,在未来数年内,资本管制的解除将以不对称的方式进行,对资金流入的限 制将稳步放宽,对资金外流的限制将基本维持现状。 过去两年的发展支持这一观点。部分改革继续推动中国资本市场对外国开放。例如,自2016年2月以来,外国机构可以进入银行间债券市场而无需事先批准。这一措施将逐渐促进 人民币作为储备货币的作用,因为大部分央行偏好的长期固定收入类债券均在中国银行间市场进行交易。 但是,2016年政府加强了资金外流管控,以控制人民币的下行压力。个人购买外汇的门槛提高,对直接对外投资的审查也已加强。此类措施对控制资金外流取得的成效意味着,大 量措施将在未来一段时间内继续生效。 同时,投资者对中期金融稳定性的担忧可能继续影响以人民币作为财富储备的吸引力。过去几个季度内,政策刺激已经稳定了经济,但杠杆率和金融风险继续增加。 联系人: Andrew Fennell 董事 主权评级 +852 2263 9925 惠誉国际评级有限公司 香港中环德辅道中68号 万宜大厦19楼 Stephen Schwartz 高级董事 主权评级 +852 2263 9938 Dan Martin 高级分析师 惠誉快讯 +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 详情参见<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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