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惠譽維持日月光負向評等觀察並核定短期評等
June 6, 2017 / 8:05 AM / in 5 months

惠譽維持日月光負向評等觀察並核定短期評等

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, June 06 (Fitch) 惠譽國際信用公司確認將日月光半導體製造股份有限公司 (日月光) 的「BBB」長期外幣發行人違約評等 (IDR)、「BBB」優先無擔保評等,及其「A+(twn)」國內長期評等維持負向評等觀察。惠譽同時授予日月光「F3」級的短期發行人違約評等和「F1(twn)」級 的國內短期評等。 日月光與矽品精密工業股份有限公司 (矽品) 於 2017 年 5月 18 日宣布美國反托拉斯主管機關批準了日月光與矽品的合併案,將成立控股公司持有日月光與矽品 100% 的股權。稍早雙方已於2016 年11月接獲台灣公平交易委員會的不禁止結合核準函。但是,雙方仍需獲得中國反托拉斯當局和股東的批準。 日月光提議以現金收購尚未持有的矽品股份過後,惠譽於 2015 年 12 月 17 日將日月光的評等列為負向評等觀察。雙方的董事會已於 2016 年 6 月 30 日採行核準合併案的決議。合併協議若未獲履行,將於 2017 年 12 月 31 日失效。 關鍵評等驅動因素 維持負向評等觀察:若合併案計畫付諸實行,擬議的控股公司與日月光雙方在財務、營運與策略上的關係將會非常密切。因此,日月光的評等或將取決於控股公司的整體信用狀況。惠 譽認為控股公司的整體信用狀況可能明顯不如日月光,因而將日月光列入負面觀察名單。待合作確定完成後,產業控股公司的資本結構、財務狀況及財務政策更加明朗,屆時應可解除 日月光的評等觀察狀態。我們可能會確認日月光的評等維持現有水平,或是調降評等,但調降將限制在一級以內。 較弱的財務槓桿比例:我們預料倘若交易發生,且全以債務融資,產業控股公司的合併擬制性經營業務所得資金 (FFO) 調整後槓桿比例可能在2017年超過3.0倍,相比之下,我們對日月光單獨信用狀況的調降指標為2.0倍。預期產業控股公司將需要兩到三年的時間才可降低其財務槓桿比例至 低於2.5倍,去槓桿化的速度將取決於全球半導體產業復甦步伐,成本和資本支出協同效應的成果及其派息政策。 擬議的交易案欲以日月光每1股普通股換發產業控股公司普通股0.5股,並以矽品每1股普通股換發現金新台幣51元。整個交易案所需現金可能高達1300億新台幣 (約為40億美元),其中包括收購日月光未持有之矽品的股份,以及矽品的4億美元尚未行使可換股債券可能轉換而成的新矽品股份,且可能透過新債務提供所需資金。日月光於 2017 年 3 月透過發行新股募集現金100億新台幣,債務總額因此減為980億新台幣 (2016年:1110億新台幣)。 更強的市場地位:我們認為擬議的交易案可能對日月光在業務上帶來顯著利益,在外包半導體封裝測試業裡的市佔率可提昇至約29%,並提高技術能力及資源集合能力,迎合系統級 封裝業務 (SiP) 迅速成長的需求。我們預料擬議合併後的控股公司將有望在資本支出和研發支出的重疊項目中達到成本綜效及相關利益。但是,當前的客戶亦可能多元化選擇供應商,轉而減少向日月 光採購某些產品,這可能帶來一些收入的減少。根據擬制性合併財務報告準則,我們估計合併後的控股公司之租賃調整後總債務約為70億至72億美元,EBITDA為27億至2 8億美元。 穩固的自由現金流:我們估計合併後的控股公司每年至少產生4億至5億美元的自由現金流。合併後的控股公司每年資本支出約為10億美元,支付股息約為4億至5億美元,利息和 稅費支出約為3億至4億美元。 低個位數的營收成長率:惠譽認為日月光的營收將成長約 3% 至 4%,大致符合智慧型手機產業的整體成長率。對於 OSAT (委外封裝測試) 業者而言,智慧型手機仍是封裝測試服務最重要的單一驅動因素。合併後實體的營業 EBITDAR 利潤率可望維持在約 19% 至 20% 的水準,近似於日月光本身的獲利能力。倘若能持續改善電子製造服務 (EMS) 部門的獲利率,則日月光中期內的獲利水準將有所提升。2017 年第一季的 EMS 部門毛利率擴大至 10% (2016 年第一季:8%),受惠於價格與成本撙節雙雙好轉。 負向產業展望:今後的 OSAT 產業很可能面臨市場基本面疲軟、激烈競爭、債務融資整併以及大額投資需求。產能利用率可能將低於 2016 年水準,業界競爭持續激烈,同時業界第三大的江蘇長電科技有限公司 (JCET) 積極擴張產能,逐漸拉近與台灣同業的技術差距。平均銷售價格 (ASPs) 則可能每年下滑 3% 至 5% 左右。 產業營收可能僅有 3% 至 4% 的成長,由中國及印度的智慧型手機需求成長所帶動。多數分析師預測,2017 年全球智慧型手機需求僅呈現低個位數百分比的成長,個人電腦及平板電腦市場則持續萎縮。OSAT 產業的持續合併,也僅能因應一部分的市場零碎化與價格侵蝕問題。合併的效益,可能只會在中期內,以產能利用率提高、議價能力改善與 ASP 維持穩定的形式浮現。 短期評等:依據惠譽「非金融企業評等準則」所列之短期 / 長期評等關係,授予短期評等。據研判,任何長期評等的調降,將限制在一級以內,因此短期評等並未列入負向評等觀察 (RWN);長期評等調降幅度達到兩級,才會導致短期評等的調降。 評等摘要 日月光的「BBB」評等反映公司於 OSAT 產業的市場領導地位、技術能力,以及穩健的既有客戶關係。日月光 2017 年的 FFO (經營業務所得資金) 調整後槓桿比例為 2.3 倍,優於 OSAT 同業艾克爾 (Amkor) 的 2.5 倍與 JCET 集團的 4.0 倍至 4.3 倍。日月光的產能利用狀況穩定,儘管營業現金流量高於年度資本支出,創造自由現金流量的能力仍然大幅優於同業。惠譽認為,日月光的市場地位、先進的技術與封裝能力,及營收 來源的多元化,將能有效抵禦業界的激烈競爭。 關鍵評等假設 惠譽評估發行人評等的關鍵假設包括: - 控股公司將遵循日月光與矽品在 2016 年 6 月 30 日所作聯合聲明的條款,在 2017 年順利成立並掛牌上市 - 營收成長 3% 至 4%,符合產業趨勢。 - 穩定的 EBITDA 利潤率。 - 資本支出與研發綜效將在中期內逐步實現 - 日月光將支付約 1300 億新台幣收購矽品其餘 (67%) 的股權。 評等敏感因素 單獨或共同導致惠譽採取正面評等行動的發展因素包括目前沒有正面評等行動的設想: 如日月光和矽品之合作計劃無法繼續,惠譽可能會將日月光的評等解除評等觀察狀態,並確認其評等。 單獨或共同導致惠譽採取負面的評等行動的未來發展因素: 惠譽待合作計劃確定,合併實體的資本結構、財務狀況及財務政策更加明朗後,將日月光的評等解除負向評等觀察狀態。這可能在併購完成的六個月後,方有機會出現。評等將取決於 在交易完成後產業控股公司的擬制性槓桿比例,利用派息過後自由現金流實施去槓桿化的能見度與延續性,以及可能發行新股融資的金額。假設我們在與公司方面商談後,判斷產業控 股公司整體經營風險的降低,足以彌補因槓桿比例走弱所造成之較高財務風險,那麼我們可能會確認日月光當前的評等及調整展望至穩定。 流動性 流動性充足:2017 年 3 月底時日月光持有無限制現金 380 億新台幣、未動用承諾設施 50 億新台幣,足以償付 350 億的短期債務。日月光承諾向銀行機構申請聯貸,籌措收購矽品其餘 (67%) 的股權所需的 1300 億新台幣現金。 完整評等清單 日月光半導體股份有限公司 -- 長期外幣發行人違約評等為「BBB」,維持負向觀察 -- 國內長期評等為「A+ (twn)」,維持負向觀察 -- 外幣優先無擔保評等為「BBB」,維持負向觀察 -- 授予國內短期評等「F3」 -- 授予國家短期評等「F1(twn)」 Anstock II Limited -- 2017 年到期之 2.125% 三億美元優先無擔保保證票據的評等為「BBB」,維持負向觀察 這類證券已獲得日月光無條件且不可撤銷的擔保。 註:此為中文譯本,若與原英文版本有任何出入,請以英文版為準。 Contact: Primary Analyst Nitin Soni Director +65 6796 7235 Fitch Ratings Singapore Pte Ltd One Raffles Quay, South Tower #22-11 Singapore 048583 Secondary Analyst Kelvin Ho Director +85 2 2263 9940 Committee Chairperson Steve Durose Managing Director +61 2 8256 0307 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com. Applicable Criteria: Criteria for Rating Non-Financial Corporates (pub. 27 Sep 2016) National Scale Ratings Criteria (pub. 30 Oct 2013) Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status Endorsement Policy Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 編輯附註:惠譽國內評等係依該市場需求或於主權評等相對較低的國家中,提供各受評機構相對信用品質指標。該國國內信用風險最低者,其評等為‘AAA’,該國其餘受評機構或 債券之評等即以此作為相對衡量基準。國內評等主要提供予該國市場之國內投資人參考使用,並加註受評機構所屬國家的專屬標記以茲識別,如‘AAA(twn)’即為台灣之國內 評等。因此,不同國家之國內評等無法跨國比較。 Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com Applicable Criteria Criteria for Rating Non-Financial Corporates (pub. 10 Mar 2017) here National Scale Ratings Criteria (pub. 07 Mar 2017) here Additional Disclosures Solicitation Status here#solicitation Endorsement Policy here ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: here. 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