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惠譽:中資投資公司的快速發展帶來風險
May 24, 2017 / 7:33 AM / 5 months ago

惠譽:中資投資公司的快速發展帶來風險

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: Investment Companies in China here HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, May 24 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初於2017年5月17日發布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1023822">Fitch: Rapid Growth of Chinese Investment Cos is Building Risks 過去五年內,由於貨幣政策寬鬆、且政府支持豐富經濟多元程度和幫助本土企業在海外擴張的投資,中資投資公司取得了快速的增長。儘管近期中國政府對資金外流的約束造成了一定 限制,惠譽預期中資投資公司可以長期維持強勁的增長勢頭。然而,對風險管控的投入可能無法與快速的增長以及與日俱增的運營複雜程度相匹配,並且,大部分中資投資公司的穩健 表現尚未經過一個完整經濟周期的考驗。 在截至2016年底前的五年內,中資投資公司的資產以67%的復合年均增長率增長,即使與中國“影子銀行”領域的快速增長相比,這一增速也很高。2016年底時,投資公司 資產估計達到10.6萬億人民幣(1.5萬億美元),相當於中資銀行資產的7%,或GDP的約13%。惠譽預計,在未來五年內,投資公司資產將以逾25%的年均增速增長。 中資投資公司在國際舞台上愈來愈顯著,反映出海外擴張在其總體戰略中的重要性。惠譽估計海外投資約占其總資產的30%-40%。許多投資公司的規模已經達到需要通過海外收 購來豐富投資組合多元程度的水平,而這一戰略也與政府的長期“走出去”政策相吻合,該政策鼓勵公司在海外投資和經營。投資公司的戰略通常與政府的經濟政策一致,例如支持一 帶一路計劃以及經濟向第三產業再平衡。部分國有投資公司將政府政策優先于利潤。 政府近期控制資金外流的措施,包括加強對對外直接投資的審查,短期內可能限制海外擴張。但是,投資公司將其大部分外幣流動性資產留在境外,並且其擴大了對境外資本市場的投 資,這會支持其海外收購而不會增加資金外流。此外,投資公司的對外直接投資常是長期戰略性投資,相比對房地產或名譽資產(如體育俱樂部)的投資,此類投資可能更受政府支持 。 中資投資公司在海外收購方面已取得競爭優勢,目標企業的股東通常受到中國投資公司的戰略資產組合提供的機會以及進入中國市場的可能性吸引。例如,復星主要針對中國中產階級 ,這就意味著,在對地中海俱樂部(Club Med)和太陽馬戲(Cirque du Soleil)投資時,其能夠為現有股東帶來潛在的協同效益和交叉銷售機會。 迄今為止,大部分投資公司均達到了運營目標,但是惠譽認為這主要反映出市場條件有利。投資公司的戰略和風險管控尚未經過重大市場波動或經濟低迷的考驗。同時,其風險報告工 具和框架沒有發達市場的同類企業一般尖端,並且沒有制度化,而創始人能夠影響風險決策。 依靠撤資收益和銀行貸款來滿足現金外流是投資公司的一大弱點,這會帶來風險,使其在面臨流動性壓力時可能被迫以低價出售投資項目。在這一方面,國有投資公司的流動性狀況比 私人投資公司理想,因為其與銀行的關係比較好且槓桿率比較低。 《中國投資公司》報告詳情請參見<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com或點擊本文上方鏈接。 聯繫人: Leo Wah(華志行), CFA 董事 金融機構評級 +852 2263 9951 惠譽國際評級有限公司 香港中環德輔道中68號 萬宜大廈19樓 Jonathan Lee(李信佳) 高級董事 金融機構評級 +886 2 8175 760 Dan Martin 高級分析師 惠譽快訊 +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 詳情參見<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問,請以英文版本為準。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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