Old allegiances fade as Taiwan heads for the polls

TAIPEI (Reuters) - There was a time when Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) could count on the loyalty of millions of voters who reviled the China-friendly Nationalist Party. No longer.

As the island heads for a presidential election on March 22, old allegiances based on how people felt about China are fading and a new generation of voters are looking to their wallets.

Take shopkeeper Jack Chen, 33. He feels he should support the DPP because it is the tradition in his farming village of Lucao in the south, a bastion of the pro-independence party that has held the presidency for the past eight years.

But Chen says that he and others his age are prepared to consider the Nationalist or Kuomintang (KMT) party, which ruled the island with an iron hand for decades, if it offers a president who can revive the economy.

"The DPP has held a lot of activities here, but whether they've done good stuff is hard to say," said the shopkeeper, whose parents and other town elders still back the party. "Our part of Taiwan is pro-DPP because it's a habit."

Discontent over the economy, whose growth of 4-6 percent in recent years masks a widening wealth gap, has already bloodied the DPP this year. It won just a quarter of parliament's seats in legislative elections in January and the KMT emerged with the lion's share.

THE CHINA ISSUE

In Taiwan's 20 years of democracy, voters have responded first and foremost to ethnic and political identity issues.

Voters who traced their roots from Fujian province in southern China would back politicians who spoke out for them. Voters whose families came from China after 1949 with former KMT strongman Chiang Kai-shek would support candidates among their own ranks.

On the other side, China's vow to reunite with the self-ruled island of 23 million -- by force if necessary -- has cast Taiwan as a victim, and given anti-China politicians more support.

Make no mistake, China is still a hot-button issue for this presidential election, not least because of outgoing President Chen Shui-bian's decision to hold a simultaneous referendum on whether to seek U.N. membership under the name "Taiwan".

Whatever the outcome of the referendum, Taiwan's United Nations bid is doomed because China wields a veto as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.

Still, the pro-independence president -- a thorn in Beijing's side since he took power in 2000 -- has riled Beijing with his referendum plan and he has raised tensions with Taiwan's most crucial ally, Washington.

While the DPP favours a formal declaration of independence from China, the KMT holds out hope of reunification once Beijing has embraced democracy.

PRAGMATISM

But this is not the nub of the political debate between the rival parties' presidential candidates, Frank Hsieh of the DPP and the man opinion polls show is the frontrunner, former KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou.

"Campaign themes have been adjusted and you can tell from the changes in what candidates are saying," said Lo Chih-cheng, political science department chairman at Taipei's Soochow University.

"Sovereignty and that kind of issue have reached a consensus, so there's no need to discuss anymore. Now voters care most about the economy."

While both parties have harped on China in their campaign speeches, their talk has not been of sovereignty or independence. Instead, it has been of significantly boosting direct flights to the mainland to help Taiwan investors and of other initiatives that would boost cross-Strait economic ties.

"I think people here are becoming a lot more pragmatic," said Wu Ray-kuo, a professor at Fu-Jen University in Taipei and a former government official. "Who is going to bring better prospects for tomorrow goes to the root of the campaign."

Targeting the new breed of non-partisan voters, whether they be college graduates struggling to find jobs or employees battling to pay their bills, Hsieh and Ma are competing to present the best plan for economic revival.

"Our method is to promote better welfare regulations," said Liu Chien-sin, former DPP deputy secretary-general. "We want to say we're not as bad on the economy as we're depicted."

But old habits die hard, and traditional voting patterns will probably persist among older people on polling day.

"The KMT was in power too long, and they weren't fair," said a 50-year-old Lucao resident surnamed Huang. "It's really that simple."