FACTBOX-Key moves in Russian rouble exchange rate

MOSCOW, Dec 24 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank widened
the rouble trading band for the seventh time in December on
Wednesday, and for the 10th time since it embarked on a path of
controlled currency devaluation in mid-November.

The rouble has now lost more than 15 percent versus the
euro-dollar basket from its historic peak, set just before a war
with Georgia in August combined with a global rout in emerging
markets to trigger capital flight from Russia.

-- For a story on Wednesday's move see [ID:nLO184082]

Following are key facts on the rouble and central bank
intervention.

BASKET RUS=MCX

Russia's central bank introduced a euro/dollar basket for
tracking the rouble's course on Feb. 1, 2005, initially made up
of 0.1 euros and 0.9 dollars. The euro's share was gradually
increased to reach the current 0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars
composition on Feb. 8, 2007.

The widening of the band has taken the rouble to its weakest
level versus the basket since its current composition was set.

FOCUS

The central bank used keen investor appetite for the rouble
to allow gradual appreciation as a means of fighting inflation
until early August, when the trend reversed.

Authorities have now said their immediate focus has switched
from fighting inflation to supporting Russia's economy and
markets through the global financial crisis and credit crunch.

RESERVES

Russia's gold and forex reserves, the world's third largest,
give it a powerful weapon against speculators betting on a
weaker rouble.

But the value of the cash pile has fallen by over a quarter
since early August, to stand at $435.4 billion on Dec. 12.

Analysts have said such rapid decreases in reserves are
dangerous, especially given weaker oil prices that slow inflows
of new money and potentially signal demands on reserves from
future years' budgets.

Standard & Poor's on Dec. 8 became the first ratings agency
to downgrade Russia in a decade.

KEY ROUBLE MOVES

Jun. 26, 2007: appreciation of roughly 10 kopecks; central
bank's new bid level seen around 29.81 roubles

Aug. 8, 2007: appreciation of roughly 10 kopecks to 29.71

Aug. 9, 2007: appreciation of roughly five kopecks or 0.17
percent; central bank's bid level seen at around 29.61 roubles

Jun. 10, 2008: appreciation of roughly 12 kopecks; central
bank's bid level established around 29.51 roubles

Jul. 9, 2008: appreciation of roughly 10 kopecks

Jul. 14, 2008: appreciation of roughly 15 kopeck

Jul. 15, 2008: brief appreciation to 29.28 roubles; dealers
say central bank's bid level seen at around 29.25 roubles

Aug. 4, 2008: appreciation to new high of 29.26 roubles,
though central bank's bid level is not breached

Aug. 8-11, 2008: rouble sells off sharply during Russia's
military conflict with Georgia; central bank sells an estimated
$12-13 billion to stop basket weakening beyond 30.10.

Sep. 4, 2008: having let rouble weaken beyond 30.10 on Sep.
3, central bank steps in to defend 30.40-41; it continues to
defend that level with regular interventions in following weeks.

Nov. 11, 2008: rouble is allowed to weaken, stabilising
around 30.70-71, with the central bank saying it has widened the
trading corridor by 30 kopecks in each direction; move comes a
day after central bank chairman Sergei Ignatyev said he did not
rule out more flexibility in the exchange rate.

Nov. 24, 2008: central bank widens corridor again by 30
kopecks in each direction, allowing the rouble to weaken to 31

Nov. 28, 2008: another band widening, rouble eases to 31.33

Dec. 5, 2008: rouble weakens 31.63 a day after Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin ruled out sharp FX rate moves but said
the rouble will fluctuate with commodity prices [ID:nPUTIN2]

Dec. 11, 2008: the band is widened to around 31.90

Dec. 15, 2008: the rouble weakens to around 32.20

Dec. 17, 2008: the rouble weakens further by 45 kopecks --
compared to 30 kopecks during the previous six moves -- to
around 32.65, seen as the central bank's new support level.
Dec. 18, 2008: the rouble weakens to around 33.11, the first
time devaluations occurred on two consecutive days

Dec. 22, 2008: the rouble weakens to around 33.45

Dec. 24, 2008: the rouble weakens as far as 33.79

OUTLOOK

Further rouble weakness is expected, with some analysts
saying a large one-off move will eventually be unavoidable,
though others reckon the current pace of devaluations is fast
enough to have a good chance of being effective.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll [ID:nRUPOLL] published
on Dec. 23 showed the rouble at 36.24 versus the basket and
31.01 versus the dollar RUB= by end-2009.

Economy Ministry's 2009 dollar/rouble forecasts and
euro/dollar assumptions [ID:nLH190875] suggest the rouble will
be in the 34-36 range versus the basket next year.

One-year non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) show the rouble at
around 35 to the dollar RUBNDF=GFI.
(Compiled by Toni Vorobyova and Gleb Bryanski; editing by Tony
Austin)