UPDATE 1-Mexico sees oil output slide continuing in 2010

* Finance ministry sees oil exports falling 18 pct in 2010

* Export fall implies output as low as 2.475 mln bpd

* Global oil price recovery seen modest in 2010 (Recasts, adds export estimates, background, byline)

By Robert Campbell

MEXICO CITY, April 2 (Reuters) - Mexico's finance ministry expects the country's crude oil exports to decline by 18 percent in 2010, implying that crude oil production will fall below 2.5 million bpd next year, according to a report delivered to Congress on Wednesday night.

The finance ministry estimated oil exports would drop to 1.125 million bpd in 2010 from 1.370 million bpd forecast for this year.

With no major additions to domestic refining capacity forecast for 2010, the projection implies that crude oil production will fall by approximately 245,000 bpd in 2010 to levels not seen since the late 1980's.

Mexican oil exports are already under the 1.370 million bpd target forecast for 2009 by the finance ministry. Crude exports over the first two months of 2009 averaged 1.315 million bpd, according to state oil company Pemex.

Pemex has struggled to contain the decline of the giant Cantarell oil field, once its crown jewel, which has lost nearly two thirds of its production capacity since peaking at over 2 million bpd in 2004.

The sharp fall in oil production poses a significant threat to Mexico's budget, which relies on oil revenues to pay for more than a third of expenditures.

Pemex aims to keep production steady at between 2.7 million bpd and 2.8 million bpd this year by boosting output at its Chicontepec project. However, analysts are skeptical that Pemex will be able to dramatically increase output at Chicontepec, where billions of barrels of oil are locked in tight pockets of rock that makes production slow and costly.

The finance ministry also trimmed its estimate for average crude oil production in 2009 by 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to the continued decline in output at Cantarell.

The ministry now sees 2009 oil production averaging 2.72 million bpd. It also estimated Mexico's oil export basket would average $48.30 per barrel in 2010. (Editing by Christian Wiessner)