Indian Data Watch - Inflation data on May 7

DAY LOCAL/GMT INDICATOR/EVENT PERIOD FORECAST PREVIOUS
-------------Calendar for May 4 week-------------------------
Mon 1030/0500 ABN Amro PMI April N/F 49.5
Thu 1200/0630 Inflation Apr 25 N/F 0.57 pct
Fri 1700/1130 Forex reserves May 01 N/F $253.09 bln
Fri 1700/1130 M3 money supply Apr 24 N/F 20.5 pct
Fri 1700/1130 Bank credit Apr 24 N/F 18.8 pct
-------------Calendar for May 11 week------------------------
Tue 1200/0630 Industry output March N/F -1.2 pct
Thu 1200/0630 Inflation May 02 N/F NA
Fri 1700/1130 Forex reserves May 08 N/F NA
-------------Calendar for May 18 week------------------------
Thu 1200/0630 Inflation May 09 N/F NA
Fri 1700/1130 Forex reserves May 15 N/F NA
Fri 1700/1130 M3 money supply May 08 N/F NA
Fri 1700/1130 Bank credit May 08 N/F NA
-------------Calendar for May 25 week------------------------
Thu 1200/0630 Inflation May 16 N/F NA
Fri 1100/0530 GDP Jan-Mar N/F 8.8 pct
Fri 1600/0630 Infrastructure Apr N/F 2.9 pct

output @
Fri 1600/1030 Fiscal deficit Apr-Mar N/F 3,071 bln

(in rupees)
Fri 1700/1130 Forex reserves May 22 N/F NA
@ Tentative date
-------------------------------------------------------------

CURRENT WK-EARLIER YR-EARLIER
WPI inflation Apr 18 0.57 pct 0.26 pct 8.23 pct
Forex reserves Apr 24 $253.09 bln $252.46 bln $312.87 bln
-------------------------------------------------------------

BI-MONTHLY CURRENT TWO WK-EARLIER YR-EARLIER
M3 (yoy) Apr 10 20.5 pct 18.6 pct 21.2 pct
Bank deposit Apr 10 39.01 38.3 31.94
(Rs. trillion)
Bank credit Apr 10 27.7 27.7 23.33
(Rs. trillion)
-------------------------------------------------------------

MONTHLY CURRENT MONTH EARLIER YR EARLIER
Fiscal deficit Feb 94.1 pct 80.5 pct 73.4 pct
(pct of
budget target) Trade balance Mar -$4 bln -$4.9
bln -$6.3 bln
Exports Mar $11.52 bln $11.91 bln $17.25 bln
Imports Mar $15.56 bln $16.82 bln $23.57 bln
Industry output Feb -1.2 pct 0.4 pct 9.5 pct
Infrastructure Mar 2.9 pct 1.3 pct 2.9 pct
output
Car sales Mar 129,358 115,386 128,098
(domestic)
Cement output Mar 18.04 16.00 16.39
(mln tonnes)#
Cement Mar 18.06 16.07 16.42
despatches
(mln tonnes)#
NOTE - Figures have been rounded off;
# Cement production and despatches figures are provisional as
compiled by Cement Manufacturers' Association of India.
-------------------------------------------------------------
QUARTERLY PERIOD CURRENT QTR EARLIER QTR YR-AGO
GDP Oct-Dec 5.3 pct 7.6 pct 8.9 pct
Balance of Oct-Dec $17.88 bln $4.73 bln -$26.74 bln
payment@
@ Source: Reserve Bank of India; (-) means increase
-------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL 2007/08 2006/07 2005/06 2004/05
Population (million) 1,127 1,111 1,107 1,090
Real GDP growth (pct) 9.0 9.7 9.5 7.5
Industrial output 8.1 11.6 9.6 9.8
(pct growth)
Agricultural output 4.9 4.0 5.8 0.0
(pct growth)
Fiscal deficit 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.0
(% of GDP)
Balance of Payments -92.16 -36.61 -15.05 -26.16
(in $ bln) @
Current a/c -17.40 -9.77 -9.9 -5.4
balance (in $ bln)
Exports (merchandise) 163.13 128.08 105.15 83.5
(in $ bln)
Car production 1.42 1.24 1.05 0.96
(mln units)
Car sales (mln units) 1.20 1.08 0.88 0.82
@ Source: Reserve Bank of India; (-) indicates increase
-------------------------------------------------------------
(Estimates are as per Central Statistical Organisation)
SOVEREIGN RATINGS (OUTLOOK) FOR LONG-TERM FOREIGN CURRENCY
DEBT:
Moody's Baa3 (stable); S&P BBB- (negative); Fitch BBB-
(stable)
($1=49.9 rupees)
(Compiled by Rajesh Kumar Singh and Rajkumar Ray)