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Industrial nations' CO2 targets too weak - experts

Mon Jun 22, 2009 9:54pm IST

* Industrialised nations' CO2 cuts just 10-14 pct vs 1990

* Russia 2020 goal could add to CO2 pressures

* Not enough to avoid "dangerous" climate change-UN chief

By Alister Doyle and Gerard Wynn

OSLO/LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) - Pledges by industrialised nations to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 fall far short of the deep cuts widely advocated for tackling global warming, experts said on Monday.

Russia, the world's number three greenhouse gas emitter mainly from burning fossil fuels, on Friday said it would limit emissions to 10-15 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, becoming the latest major industrialised nation to state its target.

Overall emissions cuts promised by industrialised nations in the run-up to a new U.N. climate pact due to be agreed in Copenhagen in December now average between 10 and 14 percent below 1990 levels, according to Reuters calculations.

"These are very weak targets overall," said Knut Alfsen, research director of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo.

"I would personally hope (Russia) could be much more aggressive," said Bob Watson, chief scientific adviser to Britain's Environment Ministry and a former head of the U.N. Climate Panel.

Russia's pledge actually means a rise from today's levels as its emissions are more than 30 percent below 1990 levels, depressed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and its smokestack industries. Watson said he had hoped Russia would set a 30 percent cut for 2020.

Average plans for cuts -- including goals by the United States, the European Union and Japan -- fall far short of a 25-40 percent range below 1990 by 2020 outlined by the U.N. Climate Panel to avoid the worst effects of global warming such as more severe droughts, floods, rising sea levels, powerful storms and loss of food production.

"Russia is one of the most energy inefficient economies in the world. It has a very strong self-interest to aim higher," said Nick Mabey, chief executive of the non-profit environmental organisation E3G.

"Projections show that if Russia fails to improve its energy efficiency it will not be able to meet its existing natural gas export commitments due to domestic demand," he said.

OBAMA, JAPAN

Developing nations led by China and India want industrialised countries to cut emissions by at least 40 percent -- saying that evidence of climate change is getting worse -- as the price for the poor to start acting to curb rising emissions.

They argue developed nations are historically responsible for most emissions.

Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the U.N. Climate Panel, said failure to make such deep cuts would put the world on a path towards "dangerous" warming of more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) above pre-industrial levels.

"If the developed countries are not willing to go to that extent (25-40) then clearly we're going to end up with temperatures much higher and therefore other impacts which are going to be substantially worse than 2 degrees would imply," he said.

Among targets, U.S. President Barack Obama plans to cut emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 -- a cut of 14 percent from 2007 levels -- and by 80 percent below 1990 by 2050. The European Union plans to cut by 20 percent below 1990 levels and by 30 percent if other nations follow suit.

Weak targets now could be partly overcome if rich nations, many of them struggling with recession, carry through on pledges for far deeper cuts by 2050.

"Russia's goal is less than we'd hoped for," said Kathrin Gutmann of the WWF International. "All industrialised countries are setting goals less than needed." (Editing by Janet Lawrence) (For Reuters latest environment blogs click on: blogs.reuters.com/environment/)

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