NHC watches tropical wave approach Caribbean

NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - A tropical wave about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands has a small chance -- less than 30 percent -- of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, the U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast Monday.

Over the next five days, most weather models forecast the system would cross the Lesser Antilles, the Dominican Republic and Haiti before reaching the Bahamas and Florida.

Over the next day or so, the NHC expects locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will hit the Windward Islands as the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 miles per hour.

The Windward Islands include Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada and Dominica.

If the system does develop into a tropical storm with winds of 39 to 73 mph, it would be named Ana, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

By this time last year, there had already been four named storms in the Atlantic basin.

Energy traders watch for storms that could enter the Gulf of Mexico and threaten U.S. oil and natural gas platforms and refineries along the coast.

Commodities traders likewise watch storms that could hit agriculture crops like citrus and cotton in Florida and other states along the coast to Texas. (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by John Picinich)