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TAKE A LOOK-Five key Asia political risk themes to watch

Mon Oct 5, 2009 4:48am IST

 SINGAPORE, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Following are five key
political risk themes for markets to watch in Asia in the
coming week, and Reuters stories and analysis related to them:
 TEETHING PROBLEMS FOR JAPAN'S CABINET
 The cabinet of Japan's new prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama,
has already run into teething problems as it gets down to work.
Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii has provoked swings in the yen
with apparently contradictory comments. There is talk of a
power struggle between Fujii and National Strategy Bureau head
Naoto Kan. Coalition partner Shizuka Kamei, the new minister
for bank regulation, has also rattled investors with his
comments. Markets will be watching to see if these incidents
represent minor teething problems for an inexperienced cabinet,
or whether they herald longer-term confusion over the direction
of policy. > ANALYSIS-Fujii gets harsh refresher in fx markets
[ID:nT337529] > ANALYSIS-Japan loan moratorium fuss hits
confidence[ID:nT182926] > Q+A-Split between Japan strategy
bureau and finmin[ID:nSP439345] > FACTBOX-Policy challenges
facing new govt         [ID:nT278491]
 CHINESE PREMIER VISITS NORTH KOREA
 Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao is visiting North Korea
for "an official goodwill visit", and analysts say Beijing
would not send such a high profile visitor unless it had won
some assurance from Pyongyang that could ease tension over the
nuclear standoff. Diplomatic sources in Beijing say there could
be an announcement during the visit about the
disarmament-for-aid talks. Signs of easing tension will be
welcomed by investors, particularly in South Korea and Japan. >
Q+A-Why did North Korea change its constitution?
[ID:nSEO325226] > SCENARIOS-N.Korea at brink of disarmament
talks [ID:nSEO140629] > ANALYSIS-US unmoved by N.Korea charm
offensive  [ID:nN24165996]
 HEALTH OF THAILAND'S KING
 Thailand's 81-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej has been
hospitalised for fatigue and fever, but doctors say his health
is improving. Bhumibol is widely revered in Thailand, but his
son and presumed heir, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, does
not command the same popular support as his father. Many Thais
and political risk analysts fear a focus on succession amid an
already inflamed political climate could be destabilising.
 > ANALYSIS-Kng's health puts focus on succession 
[ID:nSP216019]
 > FACTBOX-Five risks to watch for Thailand       
[ID:nSP503251]
 INDIA STATE ELECTIONS
 Three state elections on Oct 13. will be the first test of
the new Congress government. Markets will watch to see if the
drought and the economic slowdown have damaged support for
Congress in Maharashtra state, home to Mumbai. If support for
the government appears to be declining, analysts say, this may
make bold policy initiatives and reforms -- including on trade
and climate change -- less likely.
 > FACTBOX-Five risks to watch in India           
[ID:nSP408877]
 > FACTBOX-Impact of India's previous drought    
[ID:nDEL355352]
 > SCENARIOS-How can India manage a bad monsoon?   
[ID:nSP92183]
 MALAYSIAN POLITICS
 Prime Minister Najib Razak will be looking to retain a
state seat in Negeri Sembilan in an Oct. 11 by-election to give
him a stronger hand in pushing forward reforms in UMNO, the
main ruling party, at its Oct. 12 annual meeting. He's likely
to emerge with the first by-election victory in peninsular
Malaysia since the March 2008 general election, though the
choice of a tainted candidate underscores how Najib is
increasingly having to make compromises to shore up support for
UMNO, causing investors to question whether he will keep his
pledges to tackle graft. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Chinese
Association, the second-biggest party in Najib's coalition,
holds an extraordinary meeting for a confidence vote on its
president. Divisions in the MCA are a further headache for
Najib, as many of his coalition partners are losing support to
the opposition.
 > FACTBOX-Five risks to watch in Malaysia       
[ID:nSP154167]
 > ANALYSIS-Racial politics heats up in Malaysia
[ID:nKLR440394]  > In Malay Muslim heartland, caning wins
support [ID:nKLR529612] 
 (Compiled by Andrew Marshall, Asia Political Risk
Correspondent; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)

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