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UPDATE 1-Indian banks see stable rates till June qtr

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Fri Jan 29, 2010 6:37pm IST

* Banks expect 16 pct loan growth in FY10, despite CRR hike

* Net interest margins to be impacted by 7-8 bps

* CRR hike not to impact consumer lending rates

MUMBAI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Indian banks do not see any upward pressure on lending rates in the next six months, after the central bank raised banks' reserve requirements on Friday, top bankers said.

In a quarterly policy review, the Reserve Bank of India left its short-term interest rates unchanged but raised banks' cash reserve requirements INCRR=ECI by a higher-than-expected 75 basis points, to be implemented in two phases.

The central banked warned of rising inflation but lifted its forecast for GDP growth in the current year to 7.5 percent, from an earlier 6 percent, and said that the current rate of growth is likely to be sustained in the financial year ending March 2011.

"We do not see any upward pressure in lending rates in the next six months. Our deposit rates may not go up, but it cannot come down also," O.P. Bhatt, chairman of country's biggest lender, State Bank of India (SBI.BO), said.

"We have got so much liquidity that it (the CRR hike) does not impact us at all in terms of there being an upward pressure on interest rates for our borrowers," Bhatt said.

The head of Indian Banks' Association (IBA), the apex industry body, said lending rates were expected to be stable till the first quarter of fiscal year starting April 1.

IBA's M.V.Nair, who is also chairman of the state-run Union Bank of India (UNBK.BO), said Indian banks would be able to post 16 percent rise in loan growth in 2009/10 despite the CRR hike.

"The rise in reserve ratios may put pressure on net interest margins by 7-8 basis points but it will not impact lending rates of consumers," Nair said.

Aditya Puri, managing director at country's second largest private sector lender HDFC Bank, said interest rates would remain stable in the near term although there is an upward bias.

"If at all it (rise in lending rates) happens, it will not affect common consumers. It can only happen in case of some corporate lending."

Nair said banks would now review competitive loan rates offered to select sectors like housing in March-end. Faced with lower loan growth, Indian lenders offered competitive rates of 8 percent and above for home buyers to boost retail lending as corporates lowered borrowing during economic downturn.

Bank credit grew an annual 13.7 percent in early January, having fallen to 9.7 percent in October despite a 300-350 basis points reduction in rates since the global crisis.

Analysts expect a revival in the last quarter of the 2009/10 year as business confidence has risen. (Reporting by Tamajit Pain; Editing by Harish Nambiar)

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