Indian Data Watch- Trade data on Feb 1

DAY LOCAL/GMT INDICATOR/EVENT PERIOD FORECAST PREVIOUS
-------------Calendar for February 01
week---------------------
Mon 1030/0500 HSBC Markit PMI Jan N/F 55.6
Mon 1200/0630 Trade balance Dec N/F -$9.69 bln
Fri 1700/1130 Forex reserves Jan 29 N/F $282.94 bln
-------------Calendar for February 08
week---------------------
Fri 1200/0630 Industrial output Dec N/F 11.7 pct
Fri 1700/1130 Forex reserves Feb 5 N/F NA
Fri 1700/1130 M3 money supply Jan 29 N/F 16.5 pct
Fri 1700/1130 Bank credit Jan 29 N/F 13.9 pct
-------------Calendar for February 15
week---------------------
Mon 1200/0630 WPI inflation @ Jan N/F 7.31 pct
Fri 1700/1130 Forex reserves Feb 12 N/F NA
@ Tentative date
-------------Calendar for February 22
week---------------------
Fri 1600/1030 Fiscal deficit Apr-Dec N/F 3,099
bln

(in bln rupees)
Fri 1700/1130 Forex reserves Feb 19 N/F NA
Fri 1700/1130 M3 money supply Feb 12 N/F NA
Fri 1700/1130 Bank credit Feb 12 N/F NA
---------------------------------------------------------------

WEEKLY CURRENT WK-EARLIER YR-EARLIER
Forex reserves Jan 22 $282.9 bln $285.2 bln $247.6 bln
--------------------------------------------------------------

BI-MONTHLY CURRENT TWO WK-EARLIER YR-EARLIER
M3 (yoy) Jan 15 16.5 pct 17.1 pct 18.7 pct
Bank deposit Jan 15 42.42 42.65 36.31
(Rs. trillion)
Bank credit Jan 15 30.09 30.21 26.42
(Rs. trillion)
--------------------------------------------------------------

MONTHLY CURRENT MONTH EARLIER YR EARLIER
WPI inflation Dec 7.31 pct 4.78 pct 6.15 pct
Fiscal deficit Nov 76.4 pct 61.1 pct 132.4 pct
(pct of
budget target)
Trade balance Nov -$9.69 bln -$8.80 bln -$12.33 bln
Exports Nov $13.2 bln $13.2 bln $11.16 bln
Imports Nov $22.89 bln $21.99 bln $23.49 bln
Industry output Nov 11.7 pct 10.3 pct 2.5 pct
Infrastructure Dec 6.0 pct 6.0 pct 0.7 pct
output
Car sales Dec 115,268 133,687 82,174
(domestic)
Cement output Dec 13.91 12.51 12.31
(mln tonnes)#
Cement Dec 14.13 12.46 12.48
despatches (mln tonnes)#
NOTE - Figures have been rounded off;
# Cement production and despatches figures are provisional as
compiled by Cement Manufacturers' Association of India.
--------------------------------------------------------------
QUARTERLY PERIOD CURRENT QTR EARLIER QTR YR-AGO
GDP Jul-Sep 7.9 pct 6.1 pct 7.7 pct
Balance of Jul-Sep $9.42 bln $0.12 bln -$4.73 bln
payment@
@ (+)indicates surplus and (-) deficit
--------------------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL 2008/09 2007/08 2006/07 2005/06
Population (million) 1,144 1,127 1,111 1,107
Real GDP growth (pct) 6.7 9.0 9.7 9.5
Industrial output 2.6 8.5 11.6 9.6
(pct growth)
Agricultural output 1.6 4.9 4.0 5.8
(pct growth)
Fiscal deficit 6.2 2.8 3.5 4.1
(% of GDP)
Balance of Payments -20.08 +92.16 +36.61 +15.05
(in $ bln) @
Current a/c -29.82 -17.03 -9.57 -9.9
balance (in $ bln)
Exports (merchandise) 168.7 163.13 128.08 105.15
(in $ bln)
Car production 1.52 1.43 1.24 1.05
(mln units)
Car sales (mln units) 1.22 1.20 1.08 0.88
@ (+) indicates surplus, (-) indicates deficit
--------------------------------------------------------------
(Estimates are as per Central Statistical Organisation)
SOVEREIGN RATINGS (OUTLOOK) FOR LONG-TERM FOREIGN CURRENCY
DEBT: Moody's Baa3 (stable); S&P BBB-(negative); Fitch BBB-
(stable)
($1=46.2 rupees)
(Compiled by Rajesh Kumar Singh)