FACTBOX-Inflation pressures building in Southeast Asia
BANGKOK |
BANGKOK Feb 5 (Reuters) - Inflationary pressures across Southeast Asia are growing -- from resource-rich Indonesia to the export-dependent economies of Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore -- as commodity and food prices climb and the region rebounds.
Rising inflation is increasing the pressure on central banks to unwind easy monetary policies.
Vietnam, also struggling to put a floor under its currency, the dong, raised rates in December. The Philippine central bank raised one of its rates on Jan. 28 and economists expect others to follow. The timing depends heavily on how far and how fast prices rise.
Below is a snapshot of Southeast Asian inflationary pressures -- and how policymakers are responding.
PHILIPPINES
Philippine annual inflation eased for the first time in five months in January to 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent in December, which was an eight-month high, data showed on Friday. [ID:nSGE614087]
January's figure was below market and central bank forecasts, and analysts said that gave the central bank leeway to keep policy rates steady for now.
The central bank says it is on track to meet the government's inflation targets for this year and next.
Inflationary pressures nudged the central bank last week to raise one of its rates and start to unwind its easy monetary policy, although analysts expect its main rate to stay on hold until the second quarter.
It raised the lending rate on its short-term rediscounting facility for banks to 4 percent from 3.5 percent and said all other measures taken to support the economy, including banks' reserve requirements, were under review.
Central bank Governor Amando Tetangco reckons inflation looks manageable, even with utility rates set to rise in coming months. Still, the central bank has raised its forecast for average inflation this year to 4.7 percent from 4 percent.
* Key pages: PHCPI=ECI PHINT1 PHINT=ECI
* Next CPI data: March 5
* Recent stories: [ID:nSGE61401B] [ID:nSGE60R05S].
INDONESIA
Inflation accelerated in January to its highest in eight months, exceeding government and market expectations and reinforcing the view the central bank may need to raise rates in the second quarter from a record low.
The increase in the consumer price index was driven by higher food prices, and there is further potential for rice and fuel costs to rise in coming months.
Indonesia's central bank signalled it was in no hurry to raise rates, but it did not repeat a previous pledge to hold rates all year.
* Key pages: IDCPI=ECI IDINT1 IDINT=ECI
* Next CPI data: March 1
* Recent stories: [ID:nJAK480291] [nSGE61003F]
THAILAND
January's inflationary pressures were stronger than expected in Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy, with headline consumer prices up 4.1 percent from a year earlier, the biggest gain since September 2008.
Thailand's widely watched core inflation rate -- excluding energy and fresh food -- rose 0.6 percent, the biggest rise since April and higher than expected.
Still, Monday's data did little to alter the market consensus that rates would be on hold until the third quarter, when the benchmark rate may be nudged up 25 basis points from 1.25 percent.
The core rate is still at the low end of the 0.5 to 3.0 percent range the Bank of Thailand (BOT) uses to set policy. BOT Deputy Governor Bandid Nijathaworn told Reuters on Feb. 3 the central bank expected to tighten monetary policy this year as price pressures grow, but rising prices were not yet a problem and rate rises would be gradual.
Governor Tarisa Watanagase said on Jan. 28 that if political protests turned violent or if the global economy unexpectedly slowed, Thailand's benchmark rate could stay unchanged this year.
* Key pages: THCPI=ECI THINT1 THINT=ECI
* Next CPI data: March 2
* Recent stories: [ID:nSGE61301A] [ID:nSGE60T011]
MALAYSIA
Malaysia's consumer price index turned positive in December for the first time after six straight months of deflation, rising by 1.1 percent from a year earlier. The seasonally unadjusted gain was 0.2 percent from November.
Economists expect the index to remain positive but subdued for the rest of the year. Malaysia's Second Finance Minister, Husni Hanadzlah, said on Jan. 20 inflation would remain between 1 and 2 percent for 2010.
Most economists say the central bank will only start raising rates in the second half of next year once there are firm signs economic recovery is in place. Rates would thus be held steady at 2 percent this year.
* Key pages: MYCPI=ECI MYINT1 MYINT=ECI
* Next CPI data: Feb 24
* Recent stories: [ID:nHKV000168] [nSGE60S03D] SINGAPORE
Singapore's consumer price index ended eight straight months of declines in December, data on Jan. 25 showed.
Still, inflationay pressures are subdued. Month-on-month seasonally adjusted CPI fell 0.3 percent from November, and the index was flat year-on-year.
Other factors are also at work. Singapore Power Ltd, the city-state's dominant electricity provider, raised tariffs for the January-to-March quarter by an average 5.5 percent, citing higher oil costs.
And in November, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) raised its inflation forecast for 2010 to a range of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent from 1-2 percent, citing an increase in the property tax.
Food prices, which make up 23 percent of Singapore's consumer price index, are also on the rise. Bond dealers expect the MAS to start tightening policy when it meets in April by allowing the Singapore dollar to strengthen.
* Key pages: SGCPI=ECI SGINT=ECI
* Next CPI data: Feb. 23
* Recent stories: [ID:nSGE60Q07C] [ID:nSGC003453]
VIETNAM
With its economy racing ahead, inflation has already exceeded the government's target of 7 percent, rising for a fifth straight month in January when consumer prices rose 7.62 percent from a year earlier, data on Jan. 26 showed.
But after raising its benchmark base rate in December to a one-year high of 8 percent, the central bank said it would keep the rate flat in February, quelling speculation another rise was imminent.
But with share prices rising and credit growth soaring because of a government stimulus package, most expect another rise soon.
* Next CPI data: Likely around Feb. 25
* Recent stories: [ID:nHAN61756] [nHAN25613] (Compiled by Jason Szep and Orathai Sriring; Editing by Alan Raybould)
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