POLL-OPEC to keep oil production targets steady

* OPEC oil ministers meet in Vienna March 17

* 14/14 analysts see no change in output targets this month

* 8/14 see possible rise in output targets later this year

By Christopher Johnson

LONDON, March 8 (Reuters) - OPEC will keep oil production
targets on hold this month but could raise output later year as
the world recovers from recession, pushing up demand for fuel, a
Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Fourteen analysts were unanimous in saying the Organization
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would roll over its
existing commitment to pump no more than 24.84 million barrels
per day (bpd), equivalent to about 30 percent of global demand.

But most saw the chance of some increase in output this
year, especially if oil prices rise from the $70 to $85 per
barrel range seen for most of the last nine months.

Eight of 14 analysts said a change in OPEC output policy was
possible this year, while six saw no change until 2011.

"Don't mess with success," said Mike Wittner, global head of
oil research at Societe Generale. "The most important drivers
for OPEC decision making are prices and they are happy with
them. So why would they want to change anything?"

Benchmark U.S. light crude oil futures CLc1 traded around
$82 per barrel on Monday, near the top of a price range that
OPEC ministers have said is ideal for producers and consumers.

At this level, oil producers get a big enough margin to
invest in new exploration and oilfield development but prices
are not high enough to deter motorists and cut consumption.

ABOVE TARGET

Prices have increased gradually over the last year despite a
steady, surreptitious increase in OPEC production.

OPEC crude oil supply rose in February to its highest level
in 14 months, with several countries such as Angola, Iran,
Nigeria and Venezuela pumping well above their implied targets,
a Reuters survey showed. [OPEC/O]

OPEC last changed its output target in December 2008 when it
agreed to cut 4.2 million bpd from its production level in
September of that year.

The 11 OPEC members subject to output targets -- the 12th,
Iraq, has no target as it is recovering from war -- are meeting
only about half their promised production cuts. They are pumping
around 26.8 million bpd -- almost 2 million bpd above target.

"OPEC won't do anything to affect the fundamentals of the
market at the moment," said David Wech, head of energy studies
at Vienna's JBC Energy.

"If they put up quotas they would just be acknowledging the
reality of current production, and if they cut output, they
would be accused of threatening the global economy."

"But later this year, the picture should look different."

Oil stocks in the 30 rich countries of the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development are high at around 59 days
of consumption -- about four days above the average of the last
five years -- but should fall to more normal levels this year.

That would allow a rise in targets, at least recognising the
unacknowledged increase in output that has already taken place.

Will OPEC oil exporters raise their oil production targets?

Institution March 17? Rise possible later

this year?

Bache Commodities No Yes
Bank of Ireland No Yes
BNP Paribas No No
Commerzbank No Yes
ETF Securities No No
FOREX.com No No
HSH Nordbank No Yes
IHS Global Insight No No
JBC Energy No Yes
JP Morgan No Yes
Landesbank No Yes
MF Global No No
Petromatrix No Yes
Societe Generale No No

(Reporting by Christopher Johnson; editing by Amanda Cooper)