ANALYSIS - Bahrain elections unlikely to heal sectarian rift

A Bahraini man casts his vote inside a polling station in Manama November 25, 2006.

MANAMA (Reuters) - Parliamentary elections in Bahrain later this year will offer little to Shi'ite opposition groups pressing for more democratic reforms, and are unlikely to heal their rift with the country's Sunni Muslim rulers.

The election for parliament's lower house, likely in October or November, will be the third in the Gulf Arab state since its king launched a reform process a decade ago to help to quell Shi'ite street protests of the 1990s.

Bahrain's main Shi'ite opposition group Al Wefaq, which holds 17 seats in the 40-member body, is expected to contest the elections hotly although analysts say they are unlikely to alter the balance significantly in Bahrain's only elected national body.

"The elections will maintain the status quo as it is, without causing significant improvement or deterioration of the situation," said Mansoor al-Jamri, editor-in-chief of the opposition daily Al Wasat.

Bahrain, a close ally of Washington and Riyadh, is ruled by the Sunni Muslim al-Khalifa family while the majority Shi'ite population often complains of discrimination in jobs and services, a claim government officials deny.

Reforms instituted by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa led to a new constitution and parliamentary elections in 2002 and 2006, easing some Shi'ite demands, although ultimate authority still rests with the ruling family.

By law, the next election must be held by the end of the year, and most analysts expect it to take place after the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan in September but before the Haj pilgrimage season begins in November.

Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, is the only Gulf Arab country besides Kuwait with an elected parliament, but laws must pass through a Sunni-dominated upper house appointed by the king.

Ghanem al-Buainain, speaker of the Sunni Al Asalah bloc, said the reform process in Bahrain had not stopped. "The election shows that this (reform) experience is still alive and capable of improving," he said.

POWER SHARING

Shi'ite groups say they doubt Bahrain is still committed to implementing power sharing envisaged in its constitution by giving parliament full legislative power and allowing it to elect governments. The king currently appoints the government.

"We don't trust reform is continuing to be there," said Khalil al-Marzooq, speaker of the parliamentary bloc of Al Wefaq which boycotted the 2002 vote after the reform process set up the first National Assembly since 1975.

Al Wefaq took part in 2006 elections, marking the first time a Shi'ite group won parliamentary representation.

"People, opposition and political groups are fighting for this reform but the authorities have stopped ... They have achieved what they wanted to achieve," he said.

Parliament is allowed some supervision of the government by questioning officials, which is why Al Wefaq says it will contest the elections again.

Sunni groups share Al Wefaq's demands on social and economic issues, but are less vocal on power sharing. Shi'ite and Sunni groups have successfully teamed up, however, in pressing Bahrain to release information on its management of public companies.

Shi'ite groups also want an end to what they say are government efforts to grant nationality to foreign Sunnis, which would dilute Shi'ite numbers. They also want more low-income housing.

But Manama is unlikely to make more concessions on power sharing despite regular low-level clashes at night in some Shi'ite villages between young protesters and security forces.

"The political system is in place, the reform process is concluded," a Gulf-based diplomat said, asking not to be named.

Marzooq said it was now more difficult for Al Wefaq to persuade supporters to participate in the political process as parliament did not have the legislative power that its supporters had hoped for.

Protests are unlikely to escalate into wider clashes before or after the polls unless there are large-scale irregularities on election day, diplomats say, adding that it is premature to talk about expectations of manipulation at the vote.

Al Wefaq says its biggest concern for this year's election is polling stations where people can vote irrespective of their home district as this may make manipulation hard to detect.

The 2006 poll produced few complaints of manipulation but analysts and diplomats have said the way electoral districts were drawn ensured Shi'ite groups would not get a majority. (Reporting by Frederik Richter; Editing by Cynthia Johnston/ David Stamp)