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Q+A - What options does Obama have to boost U.S. hiring?
WASHINGTON |
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy needs more help and President Barack Obama says he will address new ideas next week to boost hiring.
Obama might push proposed tax measures including breaks for businesses to help them hire, although the White House is adamant it will not propose a second giant effort like 2009's $814 billion stimulus package.
His administration's caution reflects the hard political truth that there are not enough votes in the U.S. Congress to deliver another government spending bill to rival the package he signed in 2009.
Opinion polls show voters are worried about the record U.S. deficit. Republicans have castigated Obama for what they call reckless spending, sapping support for more action among Democrats in tight races in November's U.S. congressional elections.
But voter discontent over unemployment, as well as recent economic data that the White House calls "unsettling," means Obama has got to be seen taking more steps to lift growth.
His fellow Democrats already risk punishment by voters in November. Failure to make Americans feel significantly more confident about their own financial well-being also could hurt Obama's chances in 2012 for a second presidential term.
Here are some questions and answers about what is likely to be on the table, what economists say about the various options, and why more stimulus may be needed.
WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE OFFERED?
-- Tax cuts to encourage hiring in the United States. This could include relief for employers to encourage hiring, some form of payroll tax holiday that would put money into employees' pockets, or a combination of both. Tax cuts for businesses are the kind of measures that might get Republican support in Congress.
-- Extending former President George W. Bush's tax cuts for families earning less than $250,000 a year. Experts from the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation say this costs $1.3 trillion over a decade, and add a further $700 billion if the tax cuts for richer Americans are also extended, as Republicans want. But if the cost of extending the alternative minimum tax is also included, that rises to $2.5 trillion over the next decade for America's less-wealthy families.
-- Making permanent a tax credit for research and development. This is already in Obama's budget and a one-year extension has been written into legislation currently before Congress. Obama has linked R&D to investment in clean energy.
-- New spending on infrastructure. Obama has talked about rebuilding the country's aging bridges, roads and power grid, as well as the environmental and economic benefits of high-speed rail and of the desirability of a national high-speed broadband network.
WHAT IS ALREADY OUT THERE?
-- Getting Congress to agree to renewing Obama's Making Work Pay tax credit of $800 for a married couple or $400 for individuals. Available for taxpayers who make less than $75,000 a year, it will expire at the end of 2010 unless Congress votes to extend it.
-- Getting Congress to agree to extend long-term unemployment insurance again. This expires at the end of November unless Congress backs another extension.
-- More bonus depreciation to encourage businesses to investment in capital equipment, which the revenue service allows them to write off at a faster pace, helping small business cash flow without producing a hefty price-tag for the deficit because the costs are pushed out into the future.
HOW MUCH HELP IS NEEDED?
-- Top Obama adviser Christina Romer, in her final speech as chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, on Wednesday urged policymakers to find the will to act to spare the country the damage of high unemployment.
Growth slowed in the second quarter to 1.6 percent and other recent data has been mixed, keeping concerns alive that the economy could be heading toward a double-dip recession.
She estimated the economy faced a shortfall in demand equal to 6 percent of GDP. Simply using the last dollar measure of the size of the U.S. economy, adjusted for inflation, that adds up to $791 billion. Other economists say the amount is really much greater.
"Given the seriousness of the state of unemployment and the economy, $1.2 trillion over the next two years would be reasonable," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, a Washington think tank.
WHAT DOES THE WHITE HOUSE SAY ABOUT A SECOND STIMULUS?
-- Not going to happen:
"The options under consideration build on measures the president has previously proposed, and we are not considering a second stimulus package. The president and his team are discussing several options, as they have been for months, and no final decisions have been made," White House spokeswoman Amy Brundage said.
(Additional reporting by Kim Dixon, editing by Will Dunham)
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