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FOREX-Euro struggles, eyes on PMI data

Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:22am IST

* Markets eye HSBC PMI for China and euro zone PMI data

* More disappointment could further hit risk appetite

* Hopes of more stimulus from Fed also in play

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, Aug 23 (Reuters) - The euro nursed modest losses versus the greenback in Asia on Tuesday and could come under further pressure if euro zone manufacturing data point to more downside risk in a market already fretting about a global recession.

Flash PMI data for Germany, France and the euro zone are due later in the day. Ahead of that, HSBC will release its flash PMI for China.

"The current stabilisation in risk is conditional on European PMIs not disappointing sharply. Weaker growth in Germany would lead the market to think that help for peripheral Europe will be harder to come back," warned Sebastien Galy, analyst at Societe Generale.

The euro last traded at $1.4364 , having retreated from Monday's high around $1.4434. It looked set to test support in the $1.4340-45 area, where traders said there are some buy orders lurking.

Not helping the common currency is the ongoing public squabbling between the bloc's 17 member states on how to tackle the region's debt problems.

Germany's Angela Merkel even faced domestic criticism of her euro zone policies, with the Bundesbank slamming an anti-crisis package she agreed to in Brussels last month and a senior ally warning he would vote against key parts of it.

The softer euro helped the dollar index , which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, bounce off Monday's low of 73.814 to 74.126.

Worries about more action from Swiss and Japanese authorities to weaken their respective currencies also helped underpin the dollar index.

Against the yen, the dollar was at 76.86 yen , off a record low around 75.94 set last Friday. On the Swiss franc, it traded at 0.7891 francs , having carved out a slim trading band between 0.7800 and 0.8000.

"We are seeing a deceleration of inflows into the Japanese yen and Swiss franc as, apart from the slight pullback in risk aversion, these local currencies' recent strength has rekindled fears that the respective central banks may intervene to limit appreciation," said Samarjit Shankar, managing director of global FX strategy at BNY Mellon in Boston.

Apart from the PMI data, the major focus for financial markets this week is the Federal Reserve's annual conference at Jackson Hole.

Last year, it was at Jackson Hole that Fed Chief Ben Bernanke brought up the idea of the central bank's $600 billion bond-buying programme that became known as QE2. That pumped money and confidence into markets.

This year, some in the markets are hoping for QE3.

At the margin, hopes of more stimulus from the Fed appeared to be providing a floor for commodity currencies. The Australian dollar was last at $1.0396, holding well off a five-month trough around $0.9927 plumbed early in August. (Additional reporting by Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar; Editing by Wayne Cole)

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