Five world markets themes in the coming week

Traders work at their desks at the Frankfurt stock exchange February 1, 2012.

LONDON (Reuters) - Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/ WORKING HARDER FOR THE MONEY

February will, in theory, be a tougher month for investors given they were able to turn in a profit pretty much wherever they parked their money for the month of January (bar Portuguese assets, of course). It is not hard to find reasons to be cautiously positioned, as non-European investors are, according to the latest Reuters asset allocation polls. These include potential legal challenges to the eternally imminent Greek debt deal, the risk of economic data that has no silver lining, and the test of investors' risk appetite that a $5 billion IPO for Facebook might turn out to be. But one thing that might keep a spring in the step of global stock markets is the expectation of a booster shot of ECB liquidity at the end of the month. > Asset performance in 2012 link.reuters.

2/ MORE, MORE, MORE

The only thing better than a second chance to take up more cheap three-year ECB loans may be the possibility of a third. With some saying there is now less stigma attached to tapping such funding, speculation is already circulating that banks will take up much more at the February 29 LTRO than the 489 billion euros they soaked up in December. Thursday's post-ECB meeting news conference will give Mario Draghi the chance to give financial markets a steer on whether the central bank is willing to do even more to ensure interbank money markets function and banks lend to the wider economy. > Central banks' balance sheets: link.reuters.com/jyx65s > ECB cash may ease tighter bank loan impact > Why ECB liquidity is not reaching Portugal [ID:nL5E8D11Z3]

3/ BLOWING IN THE WIND

ECB intervention in the secondary bond market has bought Portugal some time by driving its yields down from record highs. However, investors' willingness to believe the ECB will backstop Portugal - or any other country - could depend on how tetchy the debate becomes about "official sector involvement" - i.e. asking the ECB to share the pain of Greek debt restructuring. Moreover, any renewed surge in Portuguese yields would only revive concerns that EU officials are leaving it too late to stop Portugal following in Greece's footsteps. > ECB bond buying link.reuters.com/byv93s > ECB slashes bond buys as Greek debate rages > News on Portugal

4/ YOU'RE UP THEN YOU'RE DOWN

The European earnings season is so far proving more of a disappointment than the U.S. one - though it is hard to make that out from the relative performance of the two equity markets. Nearly two thirds of the STOXX Europe 600 firms that have reported results have missed estimates, whereas nearly the same proportion of S&P 500 have either met or beaten estimates. The European index has, nevertheless, managed to outperform the U.S. one. While UBS largely ascribes the broader equity rally to hedge funds leveraging up in a low-volume market, the ability of the European market to hang on to its advantage will be tested in a big week for European corporate earnings, with ArcelorMittal and BHP Billiton among the cyclical growth plays that will be reporting. > Earnings diary for Europe <WEU/EQUITY> and U.S. <RESF/US> > Rolling global market report <MKTS/GLOB> > Europe steelmakers to test investor optimism

5/ NO RETREAT, NO SURRENDER

Swiss and UK central bank policy have scope to inject some volatility into the FX markets in the coming week. In Switzerland, the franc has appreciated back towards the line in the sand that the SNB drew at 1.20 per euro and options pricing is suggesting a test of the central bank's resolve could soon be on the cards. In the UK, eyes will be on the Bank of England's policy meeting and its effect on sterling. The consensus is for another round of quantitative easing, but positioning will be key given differences of opinion on the size of how much more QE the central bank will undertake, and a small dose of doubt among some traders about whether the BoE will hold off this month. > Options herald challenge to Swiss franc peg SNB's Jordan stands firm on Swiss franc cap. > Poll on BOE, ECB policy outlook.

(Compiled by Swaha Pattanaik; Editing by John Stonestreet)