BREAKINGVIEWS: RBI's draconian FX grab won't help weak rupee

MUMBAI Thu May 10, 2012 2:34pm IST

Indian currency of different denominations are seen in this picture illustration taken in Mumbai April 30, 2012. REUTERS/Vivek Prakash/Files

Indian currency of different denominations are seen in this picture illustration taken in Mumbai April 30, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Vivek Prakash/Files

Related Topics

MUMBAI (Reuters Breakingviews) - What's worse than a policy which scares off much needed foreign investors? A scary policy that's also ineffective. A new Indian rule requiring exporters to repatriate half their foreign currency manages to be both.

If the fear of a fast falling rupee had led Indian exporters to hoard large sums of cash in hard currencies, then the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) move might make practical sense. But by the RBI's own estimate, this change will only bring back between $2.5 to $3 billion of capital. That's loose change in comparison with India's $185 billion annual trade deficit. To be fair to the RBI, the change will prevent exporters from building up even larger stashes of cash. Seen in that light it may be more prevention than cure.

(Read main story, RBI curbs exporter FX holdings to lift rupee, click here)

The rupee is certainly under pressure. The ballooning trade deficit means it has to run just to stand still - without steady capital inflows, the currency will collapse. And without a steady currency, it is hard to attract foreign capital. Thing keep getting worse, India's exports for the month of March fell by 5.7 on a year on year basis. The first time they have declined since 2009. The rupee suffered its biggest daily percentage fall in nearly five months against the dollar on May 9.

But constant tinkering with policy does more harm than good. Recent flip-flops over tax laws spooked portfolio investors. The rules have changed on cotton exports so often that no one can now remember if they are banned or being promoted.

If New Delhi really wants to tackle the trade deficit, gold imports are a much better place to look than industrial exports. The prime minister's economic advisory council estimated that India imported $58 billion of the metal in the year ending March 2012. But a sensible decision to tax imports of gold has been partially overturned by India's indecisive policymakers.

India needs imaginative policymaking to keep foreign investors keen and to tackle its twin trade and fiscal deficits. The latest tinkering is yet another example of counterproductive thinking.

CONTEXT NEWS

- In a move designed to stem the decline of the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced that exporters will be required to sell half the foreign currency in their accounts on May 10.

- The RBI has been taking administrative measures and has also been intervening in the markets to support the rupee in recent sessions, according to dealers. It made similar moves to stem a tumble in late 2011, Reuters reported on May 10.

- Exporters will need to convert between $2.5 and $3 billion dollars into rupees from their foreign exchange accounts following the Reserve Bank of India's directive, a senior RBI official told Reuters.

- India's trade deficit for April was $13.4 billion. Annual exports fell 5.7 percent to $29 billion in March, their first fall in four months as demand weakened in the United States and Europe.

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

(Editing by Edward Hadas and David Evans)

FILED UNDER:
Comments (0)
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.

  • Most Popular
  • Most Shared

Public Health

REUTERS SHOWCASE

Cost Cutting

Cost Cutting

PM Narendra Modi boots officials out of the first class cabin  Full Article 

Airtel Profit Jumps

Airtel Profit Jumps

Bharti Q2 net profit more than doubles   Full Article 

Leisure Riding

Leisure Riding

Harley-Davidson woos affluent young Indians with bike culture  Full Article 

Maruti Earnings

Maruti Earnings

Maruti Suzuki net profit up 29 percent, beats estimates.  Full Article 

ICICI Results

ICICI Results

ICICI Bank Q2 profit up 15 percent, beats estimates.  Full Article 

Moody's on India

Moody's on India

Moody's welcomes India's policy steps, but wants to see more.  Full Article 

End Of QE

End Of QE

U.S. Fed ends bond buying, exhibits confidence in U.S. recovery.  Full Article 

Cook Comes Out

Cook Comes Out

Apple's Cook: "I'm proud to be gay"  Full Article 

Refining Margins

Refining Margins

BPCL aims to double refining margins with refinery expansion.  Full Article 

Reuters India Mobile

Reuters India Mobile

Get the latest news on the go. Visit Reuters India on your mobile device  Full Coverage