POLL-Samsung seen increasing lead in cellphone market

Mon Jul 16, 2012 1:10pm IST

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* Samsung seen increasing lead over Apple in smartphones

* Samsung expected to have sold 50 million smartphones in Q2

* Apple seen selling 30.5 million iPhones

* China's Huawei and ZTE seen gaining ground

HELSINKI, July 16 (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930.KS) increased its lead over Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Nokia Oyj (NOK1V.HE) in the global cellphone market in the second quarter, helped by strong demand and large marketing campaigns for its latest flagship model, the Galaxy S III, according to a Reuters poll.

Samsung and Apple have been neck-and-neck for several quarters in the battle to be the largest smartphone vendor, but the May launch of the new Samsung model created a clear gap between the two, the poll of 41 analysts showed.

Samsung is expected to have sold 50 million smartphones in the quarter, compared with Apple's forecast sales of 30.5 million iPhones.

"Samsung is expected to be the smartphone hero in the second quarter," said IDC analyst Francisco Jeronimo.

"We are also expecting to see the biggest smartphone volumes ever shipped from one single vendor in one quarter, driven by strong demand of the Galaxy portfolio, particularly the Galaxy S II and S III," he said.

Samsung is benefiting from its wide smartphone portfolio when competing against Apple, whose sales are dependent on launch schedules for the next versions of the iPhone.

In the overall cellphone market, when also including basic cellphones, Samsung ended Nokia's 14-year reign as the world's largest in the first quarter and is expected to stretch that lead.

Samsung is estimated to have sold 15.7 million more phones than Nokia in the second quarter, the poll showed. In the first quarter, it sold 3.4 million more phones than Nokia, according to Gartner.

The poll also underscored the growing importance of Chinese vendors ZTE (0763.HK) and Huawei [HWT.UL] in the industry.

The figures below are in millions of phones, except for the percentage change and the number of analysts polled. Historic estimates are from research firm IDC. Estimates were gathered between July 1 and July 10.

APRIL-JUNE

Mean Median High Low No Yr ago Change Prev.Q Global 151 151 163 126 17 89.0 69.7 145 Smartphones Global 405 400 422 375 25 365 11.0 398 Cellphones - Samsung 95.8 94.5 105 88.0 12 70.0 36.9 93.8

--Smart devices 50.0 50.0 55.0 46.0 9 17.0 194.1 42.2 --Smart devices 50.0 50.0 55.0 46.0 9 17.0 194.1 42.2 - Nokia 80.1 81.0 90.0 70.0 40 88.5 -9.5 82.7

--Smart devices 10.4 11.0 13.0 5.00 33 17.0 -38.8 11.9 --Smart devices 10.4 11.0 13.0 5.00 33 17.0 -38.8 11.9

---Windows 3.71 4.00 5.00 2.00 24 n/a n/a 2.00 ---Windows 3.71 4.00 5.00 2.00 24 n/a n/a 2.00

--Mobile 69.6 70.0 77.0 62.0 32 72.0 -3.3 70.8 --Mobile 69.6 70.0 77.0 62.0 32 72.0 -3.3 70.8 devices - Apple 30.5 30.0 37.0 26.0 16 20.3 50.2 35.1 - ZTE 24.3 24.5 29.0 21.0 6 13.0 86.9 19.1 - LG 14.4 14.0 17.0 13.0 12 24.8 -41.9 13.7 - Huawei 17.7 16.0 23.0 14.0 3 11.9 48.7 10.8 - HTC 9.52 9.50 11.0 8.30 13 12.1 -21.3 7.70 - Motorola 9.32 9.00 11.0 8.00 14 11.0 -15.3 8.90 - Sony 8.11 8.00 10.0 5.70 12 7.60 6.7 7.90 - RIM 7.99 8.00 11.0 6.00 16 13.0 -38.5 9.90 JULY-SEPTEMBER

Mean Median High Low No Global 165 165 182 142 16 Smartphones Global 428 426 484 391 21 Cellphones - Samsung 101 100 110 95.0 9

--Smart devices 57.3 56.0 65.0 52.0 7 --Smart devices 57.3 56.0 65.0 52.0 7 - Nokia 82.5 84.0 92.0 71.0 34

--Smart devices 10.5 10.0 15.0 7.00 29 --Smart devices 10.5 10.0 15.0 7.00 29

---Windows 5.00 5.00 9.00 3.00 21 ---Windows 5.00 5.00 9.00 3.00 21

--Mobile 71.1 72.0 80.0 60.0 28 --Mobile 71.1 72.0 80.0 60.0 28 devices - Apple 29.3 28.0 39.0 24.0 13 - ZTE 27.8 27.5 31.0 25.0 4 - Huawei 22.0 22.0 26.0 18.0 2 - LG 15.5 15.0 19.0 14.0 9 - HTC 10.5 11.0 12.0 9.00 10 - Motorola 9.38 9.00 11.8 8.00 10 - Sony 8.19 8.00 9.50 7.00 8 - RIM 7.08 7.00 10.0 5.00 12

2012

Mean Median High Low No Yr ago Change Global 667 667 728 585 16 491 35.8 Smartphones Global 1,709 1,702 1,890 1,594 24 1,546 10.5 Cellphones - Samsung 388 390 430 326.0 11 325 19.4

--Smart devices 213 212 221 205.0 7 94.0 126.6 --Smart devices 213 212 221 205.0 7 94.0 126.6 - Nokia 337 337 398 297 36 417 -19.2

--Smart devices 45.4 44.0 62.0 36.0 29 77.0 -41.0 --Smart devices 45.4 44.0 62.0 36.0 29 77.0 -41.0

---Windows 19.0 19.0 31.0 12.5 24 1.00 1,800 ---Windows 19.0 19.0 31.0 12.5 24 1.00 1,800

--Mobile devices 288 291 313 256 29 340 -15.3 --Mobile devices 288 291 313 256 29 340 -15.3 - Apple 140 138 149 133.0 14 93.0 50.5 - Huawei 121.0 99.0 195 70.0 3 51.6 134.5 - ZTE 110.5 111 127 93.0 4 59.0 88.1 - LG 60.0 58.7 70.0 57.0 10 88.0 -31.8 - HTC 38.7 38.5 44.0 33.0 12 45.0 -14.0 - Motorola 37.7 37.1 42.7 34.0 11 42.0 -10.2 - RIM 34.0 32.0 49.0 28.0 14 49.0 -30.6 - Sony 33.3 34.0 37.0 27.8 9 34.0 -2.1

2013

Mean Median High Low No Global 858 860 1,150 655 15 Smartphones Global Cellphones 1,807 1,810 2,025 1,622 22 - Samsung 425 428 445 391 10

--Smart devices 283 280 323 233 7 --Smart devices 283 280 323 233 7 - Nokia 320 325 380 177 34

--Smart devices 50.8 50.0 80.0 20.0 27 --Smart devices 50.8 50.0 80.0 20.0 27

---Windows 43.1 42.0 65.0 20.0 22 ---Windows 43.1 42.0 65.0 20.0 22

--Mobile devices 262 270 300 157 27 --Mobile devices 262 270 300 157 27 - Apple 178 177 207 155 12 - Huawei 148 131 220 92.0 3 - ZTE 128 122 156 113 4 - LG 65.0 63.0 82.0 57.0 9 - HTC 47.1 47.5 62.0 39.0 10 - Motorola 37.3 37.0 46.0 27.0 8 - Sony 35.1 35.0 37.8 32.0 7 - RIM 28.3 29.0 42.0 11.0 11

Analysts from the following banks and brokerages contributed to this poll: ABG Sundal Collier, Avian Securities, Baird, Bank of America - Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital, BMO Capital Markets, Canaccord Genuity, Carnegie, CCS Insight, Cheuvreux, Citi, Credit Suisse, Daiwa, Danske Markets Equities, Evli, Exane BNP Paribas, FBR Capital Markets, Goldman Sachs, Handelsbanken Capital Markets, HSBC, Inderes, JP Morgan, Jyske Bank, Kepler Capital Markets, LBBW, National Bank Financial, Natixis Securities, Nomura Securities, Nordea, Oppenheimer & Co INC., Pareto, Pohjola, Redeye, Sanford Bernstein & CO, Scotia Capital, SEB Enskilda, SP Equity Research, Swedbank, Sydbank, UBS and Wedbush Morgan Securities.

Data for Reuters Nordics earnings polls compiled by Inquiry Financial. For more details on the data, please click on www.ConsensusEstimates.com.

(Reporting by Tarmo Virki; Editing by Mark Potter)

((tarmo.virki@thomsonreuters.com)(+358 40840 6235)) Keywords: CELLPHONES POLL/Q2

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