UPDATE 2-Indian bond ylds rise on cbank chief inflation warning

Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:24pm IST

* RBI Gov says inflation remains "way above" comfort level

* Investors pare back bets on rate cut at July 31 policy review

* Weak monsoon could exacerbate inflationary pressures (Updates with closing levels, quote, details)

By Subhadip Sircar

MUMBAI, July 17 (Reuters) - Indian federal bond yields and swap rates rose on Tuesday after the central bank chief said inflation remains "way above" comfort levels, dashing hopes of a rate cut at the July 31 policy review.

The comments from Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao are a continuation of his hawkish rhetoric since the central bank surprised markets by leaving rates on hold last month.

The RBI has also pushed for fiscal consolidation steps from the government to prevent the economy from relying on monetary policy alone.

The warning on inflation reversed part of the rally see in debt markets on Monday after lower-than-expected headline inflation data was seen as giving the RBI room to cut rates.

"Now rate action from RBI is more or less ruled out for the next couple of months. There is no chance of headline inflation moving below 7 percent," said J. Moses Harding, head of asset liability management at IndusInd Bank.

The most-traded 9.15 percent 2024 bond yield rose 3 basis points to 8.30 percent.

The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose 4 basis points to 8.09 percent from its previous close.

Overnight indexed swaps also rose, with the 1-year rate closing up 6 basis points at 7.57 percent, while the 5-year ended up 3 basis points at 6.90 percent after hitting on Monday its lowest level this year.

Yields and swap rates had dropped on Monday after data showed India's wholesale price index rose a lower-than-expected 7.25 percent in June from a year earlier.

However, Subbarao called that level above the RBI's comfort level, which he pinned on Monday at around 5 percent.

"Certainly high inflation leads to loss of growth, and WPI at 7.25 percent as per the number that came this morning, and CPI inflation in double digits - we are way above that threshold," Subbarao said in his speech.

The central bank is also expected to be wary about inflation given the weaker-than-expected rainfall so far in the monsoon season are raising worries about higher food prices.

Investors have also been hopeful for government measures after the presidential elections on Thursday, including a potential hike in diesel prices to lower the government's subsidy burden.

Although such a fiscal consolidation step would help reduce worries about India's finances, it could also add to inflationary pressures. (Editing by Rafael Nam)

Comments (0)
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.

  • Most Popular
  • Most Shared

BACK IN JAIL

REUTERS SHOWCASE

Modi Hurdle

Modi Hurdle

Appointment of Arvind Subramanian as chief economic adviser hits Modi hurdle.  Full Article 

USL Board

USL Board

Diageo bars United Breweries from appointing independent director at United Spirits.  Full Article 

Amazon in India

Amazon in India

Amazon to sell packaged food and beverages in India - Economic Times.  Full Article 

iOS 8 Issue

iOS 8 Issue

iOS 8 causing Bluetooth connectivity issues - Apple news blog  Full Article 

NYT Job Cut

NYT Job Cut

New York Times to cut jobs as new products disappoint  Full Article 

Factory Activity

Factory Activity

Factories expand at slowest pace this year in September  Full Article 

Monetary Policy

Monetary Policy

RBI not biased towards either raising or cutting rates - Rajan  Full Article 

Weak Demand

Weak Demand

Weak demand hits factory activity across Asia, Europe  Full Article 

Pimco Fund

Pimco Fund

Pimco Total Return Fund posts record $23.5 bln net outflow in Sept  Full Article 

Reuters India Mobile

Reuters India Mobile

Get the latest news on the go. Visit Reuters India on your mobile device.  Full Coverage