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GRAINS-US soy struggles on rain f'cast; corn, wheat rebound

Wed Jul 25, 2012 10:49am IST

* Soy ticks down, rains may help drought-hit crop
    * Corn, wheat rebound as supply concerns resurface
    * Reuters poll sees corn yield at 130.8 bushels

 (Recasts with details, quotes)
    By Naveen Thukral
    SINGAPORE, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. new-crop soybeans edged
lower on Wednesday, falling for a third straight session with
forecasts of rain in parts of the Midwest offering some relief
as the crop enters its yield-determining phase.
    Corn bounced back after losses in early Asian trade as much
of the damage from the U.S. grain belt's worst drought in half a
century is irreversible, while wheat tracked corn higher.
    The pressure on soybeans following a month-long record
breaking rally also comes as global financial markets face
headwinds from the euro zone's festering debt problems.
    "Early losses have started to turn around as the grain
markets are torn between extremely alarming supply situation on
one hand and expectations that current prices will induce demand
rationing on the other hand," said Luke Mathews, a commodities
strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
    "Particularly, given the weak global economic environment."
    Asian shares fell and the euro wobbled above multi-year lows
against major currencies as soaring borrowing costs deepened
worries that Spain might need a bailout, while Greece appeared
unlikely to meet terms conditional to its aid package. 
 
    Chicago Board of Trade new-crop December corn rose 0.7
percent to $7.83-3/4 a bushel by 0453 GMT, while actively traded
November soy fell 0.1 percent, or 1-3/4 cents, to
$15.67-3/4 a bushel. September wheat added 0.8 percent to
$8.85-3/4 a bushel.
    The forecast-rain gave hope for a recovery in soybeans,
which enter their pod-setting yield stage later than corn.
    Heavy rain hit the northern U.S. Midwest on Tuesday morning
with more forecast for the same area in the next 10 days, an
agricultural meteorologist said.
    The weather outlook offset a U.S. government report that
showed the condition of corn and soybean crops continued to
deteriorate, though damage occurred at a slower pace following
scattered rains in the eastern part of the Midwest grain belt.
    Crop conditions remained at their lowest levels since 1988,
but the rate of decline was slowing. Crop ratings were seen
stabilizing in the next few weeks due to the forecasts for
improving weather conditions. 
    A Reuters poll of 11 analysts on Tuesday projected 2012
average U.S. corn yield at 130.8 bushels per acre, the lowest in
10 years with total production at a six-year low. 
 
    Scouts on a Midwest crop tour saw corn plants in western
Indiana that failed to form ears and will likely go unharvested.
 
    Elsewhere, good weather in China's corn regions has raised
expectations that the world's second-largest consumer will have
a bumper September harvest, and slowing demand from the corn
processing industry will also ease pressure on supplies,
analysts said. 
    Wheat futures, which have followed corn higher for the past
month, fell as investors shed positions picked up during the
rally. 
  Prices at  0453 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg MA 30   RSI 
  CBOT wheat     885.75     7.00  +0.80%    -2.96%     816.35   58
  CBOT corn      783.75     5.50  +0.71%    -0.22%     696.08   58
  CBOT soy      1567.75    -1.75  -0.11%    -3.36%    1512.46   50
  CBOT rice      $15.17   -$0.01  -0.10%    -1.84%     $15.09   50
  WTI crude      $88.32   -$0.18  -0.20%    +0.20%     $84.92   50
  Currencies                                                
  Euro/dlr       $1.208  -$0.005  -0.40%    -0.66%
  USD/AUD         1.023   -0.013  -1.23%    -1.34%
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential
 
 (Editing by Ed Davies)
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