"Handshake across the Himalayas"

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EM ASIA FX-Draghi gives Asia FX a gift box, but contents unclear

Fri Jul 27, 2012 1:45pm IST

* Won turns up for week on offshore funds, stock inflows
    * Philippine peso up despite c.bank rate cut
    * Speculators, stocks lift Taiwan dlr; dividend outflows cap

 (Adds text, updates prices)
    By Jongwoo Cheon
    SINGAPORE, July 27 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank
chief's pledge to save the euro zone boosted most emerging Asian
currencies on Friday, but most were headed for weekly falls
because of earlier drops rooted in Europe worries.
    The South Korean won strengthened for the week,
while two others -- the Singapore dollar and the Thai
baht -- were on track to do likewise. 
    On Friday, the won enjoyed demand from offshore funds and
exporters, while stock inflows provided further support.
    Interbank speculators chased the Malaysian ringgit 
and the Philippine peso. Investors in Manila ignored
the central bank's rate cut late on Thursday.
    ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday the bank would
do whatever was necessary to protect the euro zone from
collapse, boosting hopes that it will move quickly to tackle
surging borrowing costs in debt-ridden member countries such as
Spain. 
    Draghi's comment pushed up not only the euro but also
other risky assets including Asian stocks.
    Still, investors were reluctant to chase emerging Asian
currencies before seeing what comes out of the ECB's policy
meeting next week.
    "Asian currencies have recovered on the back of the Draghi
comments, in line with the rest of the market. Positioning is an
important consideration in this context," said Callum Henderson,
global head of FX research with Standard Chartered Bank in
Singapore.
    "From here, we think that there may be some short-term
retracement, as the market waits for deeds from Draghi rather
than just words," he said.
    For more rises, emerging Asian currencies need to see
stronger economic data from China, the world's second-largest
economy, Henderson said.
    Most regional units have eased for the week as the European
debt crisis deepened amid sky-rocketing Spanish borrowing costs.
    The Indonesian rupiah has been the worst performing
emerging Asian currency for the week. As of Friday afternoon, it
had slid 0.3 percent against the dollar on local investors'
dollar demand.
    Analysts said Draghi's comments, coming ahead of the bank's
policy-setting meeting on Aug. 2, could signal a resumption of
the ECB's sovereign bond-buying programme known as the
Securities Markets Programme (SMP), which has not been used for
months.
    BNP Paribas currency strategist Thio Chin Loo in Singapore
said Friday's gains for most emerging Asian currencies might
just be a short-term rebound.
    "A question is whether it is sustainable," she said, adding
the ECB needs to take more action, starting with re-activation
of the SMP, before emerging Asian currencies could be lifted
further.
    Another focus for investors will be a two-day policy session
of the Federal Reserve on July 31 and Aug. 1 amid increasing
expectations that the U.S. central bank could adopt further
monetary stimulus.
    Market players are also awaiting the U.S. second-quarter
growth figure due later on Friday with the median forecast for a
expansion of 1.5 percent, down from the first-quarter's 1.9
percent.
    Hopes of more policy steps from the Fed and the ECB could 
keep supporting emerging Asian currencies, some dealers and
analysts said.
    "More investors are focusing on measures rather than
problems. So we may see more rallies (in emerging Asian
currencies) for short term, although those may not be as strong
as before," said Jeong My-young, Samsung Futures research head
in Seoul.
    
    WON
    The won ended local trade up 0.8 percent against the dollar
on Friday, which gave it a 0.3 percent gain for the week.
    The Korean currency is seen facing resistance lines around
1,135 per dollar around session highs of July 5 and 6.
    The next target would be 1,132.7, the peak of July 4, if the
1,135 is cleared helped by more short-covering in the euro,
dealers and analysts said.
    "If we see any signs of solution in Europe, we will see
dollar/won lower than 1,135 next week," said a senior foreign
bank dealer in Seoul.
    
    RINGGIT
    The ringgit rose as much as 0.7 percent to 3.1500
versus the dollar on demand from interbank speculators.
    But the ringgit is unlikely to strengthen past a technical
resistance at 3.1450 if the ECB does not take concrete action
next week, dealers said.
    "Draghi has bluffed markets before. He brought hopes to
markets, but he didn't do what he promised. So, at the ECB
meeting next week, we will see if he bluffed again," said a
senior Malaysian bank dealer in Kuala Lumpur.
    In the dealer's view, the ringgit will weaken to 3.1700,
around the middle of the ringgit's recent range of
3.1400-3.2000, if the ECB disappoints markets again.
    
    PHILIPPINE PESO
    Interbank speculators lifted the Philippine peso,
tracking other risk assets, despite the central bank's decision
to cut interest rates on Thursday.
    Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) lowered its policy rate
 by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent and the lending
rate to 5.75 percent. It made the cut to shield the economy from
global headwinds and to try to temper a rising peso.
 
    Market players took profits from the peso's gains around the
session high, dealers said.
    But investors were looking to buy the peso on dips, given
the country's strong fundamentals, they added.
    "I prefer to sell dollars on rallies. If the 41.90 (per
dollar) is cleared, we will look at a test of 41.57 again," said
a European bank dealer in Manila, referring to the session highs
of July 23 and July 19, respectively.
    
    TAIWAN DOLLAR
    The Taiwan dollar rose as strong domestic stocks
 caused interbank players to chase the island's currency
and exporters also bought it for month-end settlements.
    But dividend-linked outflows for foreign financial
institutions limited the local unit, dealers said.
    
  CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR   
  Change on the day at 0640 GMT
  Japan yen        78.30          78.25       -0.06
  Sing dlr        1.2505         1.2500       -0.04
  Taiwan dlr      30.060         30.150       +0.30
  Korean won     1138.25        1146.90       +0.76
  Baht             31.54          31.65       +0.35
  Peso             41.92          42.10       +0.43
  Rupiah         9470.00        9470.00       +0.00
  Rupee            55.37          55.52       +0.28
  Ringgit         3.1550         3.1715       +0.52
  Yuan            6.3777         6.3841       +0.10
 
  Change so far in 2012
  Currency    Latest bid  End prev year    Pct Move
  Japan yen        78.30          76.92       -1.77
  Sing dlr        1.2505         1.2969       +3.71
  Taiwan dlr      30.060         30.290       +0.77
  Korean won     1138.25        1151.80       +1.19
  Baht             31.54          31.55       +0.03
  Peso             41.92          43.84       +4.59
  Rupiah         9470.00        9060.00       -4.33
  Rupee            55.37          53.08       -4.13
  Ringgit         3.1550         3.1685       +0.43
  Yuan            6.3777         6.2940       -1.31
 
(Additional reporting by Lee Kyoung-ho in SEOUL, Miaojung Lin in
TAIPEI and Reuters FX Analyst Krishna Kumar; Editing by Richard
Borsuk)
 
   
 For the new Reuters scrolling global forex service please click
 
 
    
   Double click on brackets for following items: 
   Asian currencies     Asian currencies in Asia 
   Malaysian ringgit   Indonesian rupiah  
   Singapore dollar    Thai baht          
   Taiwan dollar       Hong Kong dollar   
   Philippine peso      Korean won         
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   Exotic currencies     Non-G7 currencies  
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 (Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
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