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1 of 2. A worker tightens steel rebars at a construction site of a metro station in Chennai July 7, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Babu/Files

MUMBAI | Wed Aug 8, 2012 5:08pm IST

MUMBAI (Reuters) - More economists slashed their economic forecasts for India, with Citigroup and CLSA cutting their outlooks for growth to 5.4 percent and 5.5 percent respectively in the fiscal year ending March, with a weak summer monsoon adding to economic headwinds.

Citigroup said a policy gridlock, recent power outages, weaker exports and falling domestic consumption will take a toll on Asia's third-largest economy.

Economist Rohini Malkani said in a note that if drought conditions worsen, growth could fall to 4.9 percent.

The Reserve Bank of India has already cut its GDP projection to 6.5 percent for 2012/13 from the earlier estimate of 7.3 percent.

CLSA said it expected the farm sector to be stagnant compared with an average growth of 3 percent in previous years.

"Unfortunately, the scope for counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary support today is almost non-existent," wrote Rajeev Malik, economist at CLSA.

The RBI has been reiterating concerns over rising food prices alongside a high subsidy bill, which could worsen the fiscal deficit. The summer drought has put a question mark over the government's ability to raise fuel prices.

On Tuesday, Indian rating agency CRISIL slashed its growth forecast to 5.5 percent for the fiscal year ending March, just two months after pruning its projection to 6.5 percent from 7 percent.

It said a weakening euro outlook along with poor rains contributed to the latest cut.

(Reporting by Shamik Paul and Abhishek Vishnoi; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/
Comments (2)
kpvidya1999 wrote:
Mr Chidambaram, bells are tolling. Act fast. OK if it is wrong. Forget the party, save the country. If belts have to be tightened, so be it. Stop expenditure… throw out subsidies on fuel, electricity and freebies to electricity board employees and govt parasites. Also cut free car usage by bureaucrats. After 6 pay commission they can pay for fuel themselves and also buy cars.

Aug 08, 2012 12:52pm IST  --  Report as abuse
Ganesh69x wrote:
If you remove a population growth (births and immigration) of about 2%,that’s an increase of GDP of 3.4% only.The deflator used to compute the GDP isn’t accurate, inflation in services isn’t measured accurately.
India may already be in a recession.

Aug 08, 2012 1:39pm IST  --  Report as abuse
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