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GRAINS-US wheat sags after Egypt buys more from Russia

Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:46am IST

* CBOT wheat falls to one-month low on Egyptian purchase
    * Soybeans end mixed, corn modestly lower in choppy trade
    * Rain improves U.S. soy crop ratings, corn stable
    * Prices underpinned by tight corn, soy supply after drought

 (Updates with closing prices)
    By Julie Ingwersen
    CHICAGO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures fell 2
percent on Tuesday as Russia sold large amounts of the grain to
top global buyer Egypt in two back-to-back tenders within a
week, calming fears that the world's No. 4 wheat exporter would
soon curb exports.
    Soybeans closed mixed after a choppy session, with new-crop
November futures pressured by improving weather in the
U.S. Midwest crop belt. Corn inched lower on profit-taking.
    At the Chicago Board of Trade, September wheat settled
down 17 cents at $8.39-3/4 per bushel.
    December corn ended down 3-1/4 cents, or 0.4 percent,
at $7.89 per bushel and November soybeans fell 2-3/4
cents, or 0.2 percent, to $15.98 a bushel.   
    Front-month CBOT wheat broke chart support at $8.50 and
dipped to $8.38-1/4, the lowest spot price since July 13.
    Wheat futures fell after Egypt, the world's largest wheat
buyer, bought 120,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia and Ukraine on
Tuesday, three days after buying 120,000 tonnes of Russian wheat
at its previous tender. 
    Russia has endured a drought that may cut its wheat harvest
in the 2012/13 season by 20 percent, to around 45.5 million
tonnes. But the head of Russia's Grain Union last week said
Russia will have enough grain for export and domestic
consumption at least until the end of 2012. 
    Bids for the latest Egyptian tender showed U.S. wheat was
priced higher than wheat from Russia. 
    "The immediate concern is they (Russia) are in the market,
they are coming in at much lower values than the U.S. would be
able to offer, and into important markets such as Egypt," said
Shawn McCambridge with Jefferies Bache in Chicago.
    However, traders and analysts said Russia's government could
still impose restrictions on grain exports later in the year.
The latest sales were for delivery in September, and some said
offers of Russian wheat were scarce from October forward.
    "The magnitude of the offers out of Russia and the
aggressive pricing say to me ... that some measure of export
stricture will be imposed within 60 days, and as a consequence
they want to move as much product out of port, or at least have
the sales on the books, before that occurs," one CBOT trader
said.
    
    U.S. CORN, SOY RATINGS STABILIZE
    Improved weather in the U.S. Midwest and stabilizing U.S.
crop ratings kept a lid on the soybean and corn markets. 
    Soybeans fell despite a monthly industry report on the U.S.
soybean crush that came in above trade expectations, indicating
higher-than-expected domestic soy usage. The National Oilseed
Processors Association reported the monthly U.S. soybean crush
for July at 137.380 million bushels, above an average of trade
estimates for 132.5 million. 
    Weather forecasts for the Midwest crop belt called for
cooler temperatures and scattered rains, which could improve
yield prospects for late-planted soybeans.
    "While these rains have been too light to end the drought in
most of the central and western Midwest, northern Delta, and
central Plains, they have significantly slowed declines in crop
condition ratings for both corn and soybeans," said Don Keeney,
senior agricultural meteorologist for MDA EarthSat
Weather/CropCast. 
    The U.S. Department of Agriculture late Monday said 30
percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good to excellent
condition, up 1 percentage point from the previous week.
    Weekly corn ratings were unchanged, with 23 percent of the
crop rated good to excellent, breaking a string of nine straight
weeks where condition ratings dropped due to scorching
temperatures and dry soils. 
 
    Still, ratings for both remained the lowest since 1988.
    Grain markets have surged since June as the worst drought in
half a century in the United States withered corn and soy crops.
Supply concerns remain intense despite a pullback in prices
since Friday when traders booked profits after a closely watched
U.S. government report updated crop estimates.
    CBOT December corn has fallen 7 percent from its
all-time high of $8.49 a bushel set on Friday.
    The G20 group of countries could hold an emergency meeting
next month, depending on the gravity of the food price
situation, France said on Monday, as the group seeks to put into
practice pledges made last year to curb volatility in food
markets. 
    
 Prices at 3:19 p.m. CDT (2019 GMT)      
                              LAST      NET    PCT     YTD
                                        CHG    CHG     CHG
 CBOT corn                  779.75    -3.00  -0.4%   20.6%
 CBOT soy                  1680.00    23.75   1.4%   40.2%
 CBOT meal                  530.80     4.50   0.9%   71.6%
 CBOT soyoil                 52.83    -0.12  -0.2%    1.4%
 CBOT wheat                 839.75   -17.00  -2.0%   28.6%
 CBOT rice                 1529.00   -36.50  -2.3%    4.7%
 EU wheat                   255.75    -1.50  -0.6%   26.3%
 
 US crude                    93.39     0.66   0.7%   -5.5%
 Dow Jones                  13,172        3   0.0%    7.8%
 Gold                      1599.56    -9.98  -0.6%    2.3%
 Euro/dollar                1.2322  -0.0007  -0.1%   -4.8%
 Dollar Index              82.5150   0.0800   0.1%    2.9%
 Baltic Freight                750      -14  -1.8%  -56.8%
 
 (Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen
Thukral in Singapore; editing by Himani Sarkar, Alison Birrane,
Marguerita Choy, Jim Marshall and Carol Bishopric)
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