TABLE-OECD cuts growth forecasts for most G7 economies

Thu Sep 6, 2012 2:30pm IST

PARIS, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Following are updated forecasts from the Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for growth in the world's main developed
economies in 2012 and the year's third and fourth quarters.
    The annual forecasts are based on a narrower scope of data and different model than those
given in the OECD's May Economic Outlook, and are therefore not perfectly comparable.
    The quarterly GDP forecasts are for annualised, quarter-on-quarter growth and are based
on GDP releases and high-frequency indicators published up to Sept. 4, 2012. Data are
seasonally and in some cases also working-day adjusted. Figures in brackets show the
associated standard error ranges.
    
                                        Annualised quarter-on-quarter growth, in percent
                2011   2012  May 2012   11Q2   11Q3   11Q4    12Q1    12Q2     12Q3     12Q4
                             forecast*                                                 
 United States   1.8   2.3      2.4      2.5    1.3    4.1    2.0      1.7      2.0     2.4
     Japan      -0.8   2.2      2.0     -1.9    7.4    0.3    5.5      1.4     -2.3      0
    euro 3        2    -0.2     n/a      1.2    0.8   -1.0    0.1     -0.3     -1.0     -0.7
  countries**                                                                          
    Germany      3.1   0.8      1.2      1.8    1.5   -0.6    2.0      1.1     -0.5     -0.8
    France       1.7   0.1      0.6      0.2    1.1     0     0.1     -0.2     -0.4     0.2
     Italy       0.5   -2.4    -1.7      1.4   -0.9   -2.9    -3.3    -2.9     -2.9     -1.4
     UK***       0.8   -0.7     0.5     -0.4    2.4   -1.4    -1.3    -1.8    -0.7***   0.2
    Canada       2.4   1.9      2.2     -1.0    4.5    1.9    1.8      1.8      1.3      1.9
                                                                                          
      G7         1.4   1.4      n/a      1.1    2.3    1.7    1.8      0.9      0.3     1.1
 * From the OECD's twice-yearly Economic Outlook published in May.
** Weighted average of Germany, France and Italy
*** The forecast for the United Kingdom does not account for the likely shift of activity
from Q2 to Q3 due to the additional Diamond Jubilee bank holiday in June. The OECD said the
impact of the Olympics may also not be fully accounted for in these forecasts.
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