OUTLOOK-Export demand to boost India wheat futures

MUMBAI, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Wheat futures in India, the world's second-largest producer, edged marginally higher on Monday and are likely to rise further this week on buoyant export demand as traders face low stocks.

"Traders are expecting a rise in demand for Indian wheat in coming months due to a predicted decline in the Australian wheat output, and this could support wheat prices in the local market," said Dinesh Agrawal, an exporter based in New Delhi.

However, traders expect that the government's move to release 1.3 million tonnes of additional wheat from its stocks and an improvement in rains could weigh on prices.

Wheat output in Australia, the world's No. 2 exporter after the United States, could decline by as much as 25 percent to 22-23 million tonnes from last year's record 29.5 million tonnes as dry weather curbs yields, analysts said.

Lower supplies from Australia could help fuel global prices and boost demand for Indian wheat, traders said.

"Indian wheat is cheaper than U.S and Australian wheat, so people are expecting good demand in coming days particularly from southeast Asian countries, which are mostly dependent on Australian supplies," said Agrawal.

U.S. wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have been rising on expectations Russia, the world's fourth-largest exporter, could impose curbs on shipments to ensure higher availability in its local market.

But on Monday after gaining early they eased back and at 1408 GMT, the key U.S December contract on CBOT was trading flat at $9.05 per bushel.

The October wheat contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) closed broadly flat on Monday at 1,547 rupees per 100 kg (around $7.15 per bushel).

Exporters are buying wheat from bulging government warehouses at around $310 per tonne whereas U.S soft wheat was quoted around $380 in Asian markets and the Austrian prime wheat at around $385 per tonne.

In the latest government wheat tender, state-run trading company PEC Ltd received 10 bids, with Thailand-based Phoenix Commodities emerging as the highest bidder at $313.50 per tonne.

India is sitting on huge wheat stocks after several bumper harvests. Inventories at government warehouses reached 47.5 million tonnes on Aug. 1, more than three times the official target.

Most traders stayed away from the market during the period when supplies from the new harvest arrived, expecting a decline in prices. But record buying by the government to support prices for farmers left little wheat with private traders for stocks.

Meanwhile the monsoon rains picked up in September and will help make the soil moist for planting of the next wheat crop.

"An improvement in rains in September, which are very good for winter sowing (rabi) crops, allayed the fears of a decline in wheat acreage this year, and it may weigh on prices also," said Badruddin Khan, associate vice-president at India Bulls Commodities.

($1 = 55.4200 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Deepak Sharma; Editing by Jo Winterbottom)