New iPhone could boost US GDP by up to 0.5 percent, JP Morgan says

Tue Sep 11, 2012 5:17am IST

Google and Apple applications are seen on the display of IPhone in this photo illustration taken in Berlin, August 31, 2012. REUTERS/Pawel Kopczynski

Google and Apple applications are seen on the display of IPhone in this photo illustration taken in Berlin, August 31, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Pawel Kopczynski

Related Topics

Stocks

   

REUTERS - The next generation iPhone 5, which Apple Inc. plans to release this week, could not only boost the tech giant's bottom line - but could give a significant boost to the overall U.S. economy.

Sales of the new iPhone could add between a quarter and a half percentage point to fourth quarter annualized growth in the U.S., according to J.P. Morgan's chief economist, Michael Feroli in a note to clients on Monday.

Such an impact would be significant.

"Calculated using the so-called retail control method, sales of iPhone 5 could boost annualized GDP growth by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate," Feroli wrote. That 0.33 percentage-point boost, he added, "would limit the downside risk to our Q4 GDP growth protection, which remains 2.0 percent."

Feroli laid out his math. J.P. Morgan's analysts expect Apple to sell around 8 million iPhone 5s in the fourth quarter. They expect the sales price to be about $600.

With about $200 in discounted import component costs, the government can factor in $400 per phone into its measure of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter.

Feroli said the estimate of between a quarter to a half point of annualized GDP "seems fairly large, and for that reason should be treated skeptically." But, he added, "we think the recent evidence is consistent with this projection."

Feroli said that when the last iPhone was launched in October 2011, sales significantly outperformed expectations.

"Given the iPhone 5 launch is expected to be much larger, we think the estimate mentioned ... is reasonable," Feroli wrote.

According to a recent Reuters poll of Wall Street dealers and economists, U.S. GDP was seen at 2.0 percent on average in 2013, down slightly from estimates this summer.

(Reporting By Tim Reid; editing by Todd Eastham)

FILED UNDER:
Comments (0)
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.

  • Most Popular
  • Most Shared

Earnings Season

REUTERS SHOWCASE

Monsoon Revives

Monsoon Revives

Monsoon revival keeps rain above average   Full Article 

Tackling Food Prices

Tackling Food Prices

India to free up extra 10 million tonne wheat in open market  Full Article 

Just Not Enough

Just Not Enough

Amazon's smartphone fails to kindle a "Fire" among reviewers.  Full Article 

Struggling Economies

Struggling Economies

Asian economies to struggle on weak export demand - Reuters poll  Full Article 

Mining Roadblock

Mining Roadblock

Coal India's plans for 20 mines hit by land, environment delays  Full Article 

Power Jolt

Power Jolt

UAE's TAQA pulls out of India power plant deal with Jaiprakash  Full Article 

Factory Sector

Factory Sector

China July HSBC flash PMI at 18-month high of 52.0   Full Article 

Currency Reserves

Currency Reserves

Sri Lankan, Indian central banks agree scope for government debt buys.  Full Article 

Reuters India Mobile

Reuters India Mobile

Get the latest news on the go. Visit Reuters India on your mobile device.  Full Coverage