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GRAINS-Soybeans face biggest weekly decline in a year

Fri Sep 21, 2012 10:01am IST

* Soybeans up 0.8 pct after losses; corn, wheat firm
    * Soy on track for biggest weekly loss in a year
    * Bargain hunting supports beans in Asian session
    * Corn, soy to remain under harvest pressure

 (Adds details, quotes)
    By Naveen Thukral
    SINGAPORE, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Chicago soybeans rose 0.8
percent on Friday, boosted by bargain hunting in Asia, but the
market is on track for its biggest weekly loss in a year, with a
rapid U.S. harvest and expectations of higher yields weighing on
the market.
    Corn and wheat futures edged higher, tracking gains in
soybeans, although the grain markets are facing their steepest
weekly decline in more than three months.
    U.S. farmers have started harvesting corn and soybeans at a
brisk pace this year, which is adding seasonal pressure to
prices, which jumped to all-time highs this summer as the worst
drought in half a century ravaged crops across the U.S. Midwest.
    The losses in corn and soybean markets are likely to be
capped by extremely tight supplies that will face buyers until
South American crops hit the market in March and April. 
    The wheat market is likely to find support from depleting
stocks in Russia, the world's fourth largest exporter, after
aggressive sales from its drought-hit harvest, and dryness
hurting crops in Australia, the No. 2 exporter.
    "I think the market is going to be reluctant to push prices
anywhere near the highs that they reached in recent weeks as we
are in the middle of the harvest and yield reports coming out
are positive," said Victor Thianpiriya, agricultural strategist
at ANZ bank in Singapore.
    "Having said that, it is still well bid in the Asia Pacific
session as we have seen a pick up in consumer business."
    Chicago Board of Trade November soy rose 0.8 percent
to $16.31-3/4 a bushel by 0332 GMT, while December corn 
added 0.2 percent to $7.47-3/4 a bushel. December wheat 
gained 0.3 percent to $8.82 a bushel.
    November soybeans have lost 6.3 percent this week, the
biggest weekly loss since September 25. December corn is down
4.4 percent, biggest weekly fall in more than three months and
December wheat has given up 4.6 percent, steepest decline since
early June.
     
    HARVEST PRESSURE
    Corn spot basis bids were steady to lower around the U.S.
Midwest on Thursday, with the basis falling to a six-month low
at a closely-watched processor in central Illinois, as farmers
delivered freshly harvested supplies 
    The market is also watching corn and soybean planting
conditions in South America, where production is expected to
replenish global supplies in early 2013. Any production issues
in Brazil and Argentina could provide a fresh bullish momentum
to the markets.
    Argentina's 2012/13 corn season, which many analysts think
could yield a record harvest, has got off to a good start as
moist fields spur seeding, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
said. 
    Argentina is the world's second-biggest supplier of corn
after the United States and ideal sowing conditions and high
global prices have revived farmer interest in growing the grain.
    The wheat market is likely to find support from adverse
weather threatening crops in Australia and lower supplies from
Russia.
    The winter wheat crop in the southern U.S. Plains needs rain
to establish itself, and conditions are dry in Australian
wheat-producing areas.
    Russia's grain exports will start to decline in October as
stocks are falling quickly, supporting domestic prices and
increasing the possibility of import from its ex-Soviet
neighbours, SovEcon agricultural analysts said. 
    In September Russia is expected to export 3.0 milliion to
3.1 million tonnes of grain, including flour equivalent and
legumes, up from 2.9 million tonnes seen in August, according to
SovEcon.
    
  Prices at  0332 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg MA 30   RSI 
  CBOT wheat     882.00     2.50  +0.28%    +0.46%     892.78   55
  CBOT corn      747.75     1.75  +0.23%    -0.03%     796.79   32
  CBOT soy      1631.75    13.00  +0.80%    -2.23%    1695.23   34
  CBOT rice      $15.22    $0.03  +0.20%    -0.46%     $15.44   59
  WTI crude      $93.00    $0.58  +0.63%    +1.11%     $95.51   36
  Currencies                                                
  Euro/dlr       $1.298  -$0.007  -0.54%    -1.08%
  USD/AUD         1.047    0.001  +0.13%    -0.08%
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential
 
 (Reporting by Naveen Thukral;Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
 (naveen.thukral@thomsonreuters.com; +65-6870-3829; Reuters
Messaging: naveen.thukral.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)
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