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GRAINS-Soy at lowest since mid-August on higher output estimate

Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:59am IST

* Higher yields, slow Chinese demand weigh on soy
    * U.S. soybeans fall 1.4 pct, below $16 a bushel
    * Corn down 0.5 pct, wheat ticks down after rally
    * Riskier assets fall, dollar up on growth concerns

 (Updates with quotes, details)
    By Naveen Thukral
    SINGAPORE, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Chicago soybeans slid 1.4
percent on Monday, falling below $16 a bushel for the first time
since mid-August, as latest private estimates of higher U.S.
production and slowing demand from top consumer China dragged
down prices.
    Corn fell around half a percent while wheat edged lower,
after last session's gains, as growing economic concerns pushed
down commodities, including oil and metals.
    Analytics firm Informa Economics raised estimates for U.S.
corn and soybean production while farmers in South America also
geared up for a large crop.
    "Things were overbought and we are now a seeing a correction
as historically these type of rallies end up in a selloff," said
one Melbourne-based commodities analyst. "The market is looking
at a larger South American crop, slowing Chinese demand and
higher production estimates in the U.S."
    The front-month Chicago Board of Trade soybeans 
climbed to a record top of $17.94-3/4 a bushel earlier this
month, while corn jumped to an all-time high of $8.49 a
bushel in August as the worst drought in half a century
devastated crops across the U.S. grain belt.
    On Monday, November soy slid 1.4 percent to $15.98-1/2
a bushel by 0328 GMT, after touching a low of $15.90-1/4 a
bushel, its weakest since Aug. 14. 
    December corn lost 0.5 percent to $7.44-1/4 a bushel
and December wheat fell 0.4 percent to $8.94 a bushel.
    Grain prices came under further pressure from an overall
weakness in other financial markets.
    Riskier assets fell on Monday, dragging down Asian shares,
copper and oil but the dollar strengthened as investors shifted
their focus to weak economic fundamentals while monitoring
progress in the euro zone debt bailout scheme. 
    The dollar index measured against a basket of key currencies
 rose 0.3 percent, weighing on commodities priced in the
greenback like oil, copper and as well as gold.
    
    BEARISH FUNDAMENTALS
    Informa pegged U.S. 2012 corn production at 11.093 billion
bushels compared with 10.727 billion bushels estimated by the
USDA in its September crop report. For soybeans the firm
forecast U.S. production at 2.663 billion bushels against 2.634
billion bushels estimated by the USDA. 
    A slowdown in edible oil consumption, which sent palm oil to
a two-year low, is adding to the bearish sentiment in soybeans.
    "Slowing European demand for biodiesel is a key headwind for
prices," Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at the
Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a report. 
    Palm oil prices will fall further this year as slowing
economic growth reins in demand for biofuel production, leading
to higher stocks at top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, an
industry meeting concluded on Sunday. 
    Investors are turning their attention to soybean production
in Brazil and Argentina.
    Farmers in Brazil's grain belt jump-started planting after
early showers set the scene for what is expected to be a bumper
corn and record soy crop, producers and analysts said on Friday.
 
    At the same time, China is likely to reduce soy purchases as
it will carry on selling soybean reserves well into 2013 to
contain food inflation and ease tight supplies. 
    The wheat market also came under pressure amid a broad-based
weakness in the financial markets but losses were limited by
expectations of export restrictions in Russia.
    Wheat jumped 2 percent on Friday after Russia's economy
minister, Andrei Belousov, said the country may curb grain
exports if domestic prices continue to rise. 
    The economy minister's statement was, however, refuted by
the nation's deputy farm minister over the weekend. Ilya
Shestakov said that he was surprised by a sudden statement by
Belousov that Russia could limit grain exports. 

  Prices at 0328 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  MA 30   RSI 
  CBOT wheat     894.00    -3.25  -0.36%   890.14   60
  CBOT corn      744.25    -4.00  -0.53%   792.08   33
  CBOT soy      1598.50   -23.25  -1.43%  1696.65   28
  CBOT rice      $15.22   -$0.02  -0.13%   $15.38   60
  WTI crude      $92.15   -$0.74  -0.80%   $95.48   33
  Currencies                                                
  Euro/dlr       $1.295  -$0.003  -0.25%  
  USD/AUD         1.042   -0.004  -0.34%  
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential
 
 (Editing by Himani Sarkar)
 (naveen.thukral@thomsonreuters.com; +65-6870-3829; Reuters
Messaging: naveen.thukral.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)
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