Frost might bite Argentine wheat, more rain in store

* Cold snap could hurt developing wheat crops
* Argentina is a top world soy, corn, wheat supplier
* Buenos Aires rains cause some flooding, more showers seen

By Hugh Bronstein
BUENOS AIRES, Sept 25 (Reuters) - A cold snap in grains
powerhouse Argentina could cause frost damage to wheat plants as
they enter key growth stages, but the outlook remains bright due
to forecasts for further rain, weather specialists said on
Tuesday.
Expectations for ample showers related to the El Nino
phenomenon are raising farmers' hopes for a bumper harvest after
a dry 2011/12 season in Argentina, the world's No. 6 wheat
exporter, the No. 3 soybean provider and the second-biggest corn
supplier.
Wheat growers, however, who finished planting their 2012/13
crops last month, will be keeping a close eye on a cold spell
that began on Monday and is expected to last until Thursday.
"The thing to watch this week are the frosts," said Leonardo
De Benedictis, weather expert at farm consultancy Clima Campo.
"Unseasonably cold air is prevalent throughout the country,
coming at a delicate time for wheat, which is in its growing
stage. This can cause difficulties, but it shouldn't be anything
catastrophic," De Benedictis said.
He said he sees a less-severe cold front coming to Argentina
on Sunday, bringing storms to the Pampas. "This will help
maintain the good soil moisture that already exists in the
central part of the farm belt," De Benedictis added.
The Argentine government says 3.7 million hectares of wheat
were planted this year, down about 20 percent from last season.
Farmers say government trade policies deter wheat sowing, and
plantings have fallen in recent years.
Argentine grain supply flow is of interest to exporters such
as Cargill Inc, Bunge Ltd and Noble Group Ltd
, which operate gigantic terminals along the Parana
River, leading to the shipping lanes of the South Atlantic.

An El Nino event is likely to develop this month and next,
affecting global climate patterns, the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.
The phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm ocean
temperatures in the tropical Pacific, tends to bring rain to
Argentina's central agricultural belt while causing dryness in
Australia and parts of Asia. It's opposite, La Nina, causes a
cooling of waters and makes for dry Argentine crop weather.
Heavy rains in August and this month soaked wheat plots and
flooded some parts of top producer Buenos Aires province.
"There has been flooding of varying severity in central and
southeastern Buenos Aires, which has delayed some corn planting.
But that is being made up for," said Tomas Parenti, an
agronomist at the Rosario grains exchange.
As of last week, about 5 percent of 2012/13 corn had been
planted, according to the Buenos Aires Gains Exchange, with soy
expected to start going into the ground next month.

"Wheat is growing well and conditions are very good for soy
planting, which will start in mid-October. Conditions are set
for high yields," Parenti said. "An overabundance of rain is
better, in terms of farm production, than drought scenarios."
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts
Argentine 2012/13 corn output at 28 million tonnes, up from last
season's 21 million tonnes. Although the Argentine government
has not formally estimated production, a senior official said it
could exceed 26 million tonnes.