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COMMODITIES-Stimulus aids Q3; focus now on shaky economies

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Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:50am IST

* Stimulus, supply risks lift commodities in Q3
    * Wariness over further gains as global economy struggles
    * Brent posts best quarter since Q1 2011
    * Gold has best quarter since 2010
    * Commodity losses/gains:By Barani Krishnan
    NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Commodities closed broadly
higher on Friday with their biggest quarterly gain in nearly two
years, but analysts voiced skepticism about future direction
amid fresh worries over Europe's debt troubles and the fragile
global economy.
    Raw materials prices soared through July and August, hitting
multi-month highs in anticipation of bond-buying and other
market-aiding stimulus - later confirmed - by central banks in
the United States, Europe and China.
    The stimulus-inspired rally gave oil and metals markets, as
well as grains such as corn that were already surging because of
a crop-decimating drought, a lurch powerful enough to withstand
the stormy selloff that came in September.
    Benchmark Brent crude oil ended the third quarter up nearly
15 percent, its biggest advance since the first quarter of 2011.
 
    Copper also had its best quarter since early last year, and
gold and corn their strongest quarterly run since 2010. Sugar
bucked the trend with a 10 percent loss.   
    Some analysts expressed uncertainty over whether the broad
upward momentum could be sustained, given the upheaval in Spain
and Greece over new austerity measures, and a doubtful outlook
for the U.S. and Chinese economies.
    Spain issued a detailed timetable for economic reforms this
week and peppered its 2013 budget with spending
cuts as anti-austerity demonstrators clashed with police in
Madrid. Protests also rocked Athens as Greece
tries to push through spending cuts worth nearly 12 billion
euros ($15.6 billion) over the next two years. 
    The 19-commodity Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index 
rose on Friday, the last session of September, as some cheered
Spain's budget reforms.
    "The market at the moment is taking a glass-half-full
approach rather than half empty," said Julian Jessop, head of
commodities research at Capital Economics in London, referring
to tougher fiscal policy emerging in the euro zone. 
    "We wouldn't view it that way - what Europe needs is growth
and not more austerity."
    The CRB settled up 0.6 percent on the day and 0.1 percent
higher on the week. It was down slightly for the month and up
nearly 9 percent for the quarter.
    London's Brent crude closed at $112.39 a barrel, up
slightly on the day and 0.7 percent higher on the week. Optimism
over Spain aside, Brent was boosted by news of
longer-than-expected delays in North Sea oilfield maintenance
that have taken a toll on Brent cargo deliveries.
 
    Oil prices were also buoyed this week by heightened fears
about supply out of the Middle East after verbal volleys between
Iran and Israel over Tehran's refusal to back down on its
nuclear program.  
    U.S. crude settled at $92.19 a barrel, up 0.4 percent
on the day and down nearly 1 percent on the week. It fell almost
5 percent in September but rose more than 8 percent for the
quarter. 
    While much of oil's focus for the quarter had been on
bond-buying pledges from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the
European Central Bank, economic conditions came back into play
amid questions about where demand would come from in an
environment of sputtering growth.    
    "The U.S. is still sluggish and we have weak news out of
China," said Victor Shum, managing director for downstream
energy consulting at IHS Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "The
economic picture is far from robust. If I look at the economic
picture, the immediate outlook is bearish."
    Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange 
closed at $8,205 a tonne, up 0.4 percent on the day and down 0.8
percent on the week. For the quarter, LME copper posted a 7
percent gain, its biggest since the first quarter of 2011.
    Volatility will likely persist in copper through the fourth
quarter as the positive impact of stimulus activity counteracts
the dampening impact from weak economies, Edward Meir, analyst
at INTL FCStone, said. 
    "The tug-of-war between these two countervailing camps will
likely go on for some time, but we suspect that even if Europe
settles down, macro variables will eventually tip the markets in
a more southerly direction," Meir said in a note. 
    Signs of slowing global growth persisted in Asia, where
South Korea's industrial output contracted for the third
consecutive month, while Japan's industrial production fell more
than expected in August. 
    The spot price of gold hovered at $1,770 an ounce,
down nearly half a percent on the day but up 11 percent for the
quarter - its best since the second quarter of 2010. The shiny
metal jumped almost 5 percent in September, rising for a fourth
consecutive month.
    U.S. corn settled at $7.56 a bushel, surging nearly 6
percent for the session, or by the daily trading limit of 40
cents. The rally came as the government slashed stockpiles for
the grain, helping to boost prices by 12 percent for the
quarter.
      
    
      Prices at 4:04 p.m. EDT (2004 GMT)      
                             LAST/      NET    PCT     YTD
                             CLOSE      CHG    CHG     CHG
 US crude                    92.01     0.16   0.2%   -6.9%
 Brent crude                112.08     0.07   0.1%    4.4%
 Natural gas                 3.320    0.023   0.7%   11.1%
 
 US gold                   1773.90    -6.60  -0.4%   13.2%
 Gold                      1772.05    -5.24  -0.3%   13.3%
 US Copper                  371.40     0.00   0.0%    8.1%
 LME Copper                8205.00    30.00   0.4%    8.0%
 Dollar                     79.942    0.394   0.5%   -0.3%
 CRB                       309.300    1.970   0.6%    1.3%
 
 US corn                    759.50    40.00   5.6%   17.5%
 US soybeans               1602.75    31.50   2.0%   33.7%
 US wheat                   912.25    44.00   5.1%   39.8%
 
 US Coffee                  173.50    -0.80  -0.5%  -24.0%
 US Cocoa                  2516.00    34.00   1.4%   19.3%
 US Sugar                    19.58    -0.02  -0.1%  -15.7%
 
 US silver                  33.883    0.000   0.0%   21.4%
 US platinum               1634.40     0.00   0.0%   16.3%
 US palladium               624.70     0.00   0.0%   -4.8%
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