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GRAINS-Soybeans fall, wheat pares gains on macroeconomic worries

Sat Oct 20, 2012 3:01am IST

* Soy follows equities, metals down on fears of global slump
    * Wheat supported by talk Ukraine to halt wheat exports
    * Wheat, corn, soy all post weekly gains

 (New throughout; updates with closing prices; adds byline)
    By Julie Ingwersen and Sam Nelson
    CHICAGO, Oct 19 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures fell 0.7
percent on Friday, halting a three-day rally, while wheat and
corn pared early gains as fears about the health of the global
economy prompted investors to exit riskier assets.
    General Electric and McDonald's earnings disappointed and a
perceived lack of progress on a Spanish bailout request reminded
investors of the headwinds facing the world economy.
    "We have had a round of liquidation on 'risk-off' trade. The
metals are off and the S&P is testing major support. The dollar
is turning higher. The second half of the (trading) session has
been a throwback to last week, with fears about global demand,"
said Mike Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics in
West Lafayette, Indiana.
    At the Chicago Board of Trade, November soybeans ended
down 11-1/4 cents at $ 15.3 4- 1/4 per bushel. D ecember wheat 
se ttled up 4 cents at $8 .72 -1/2 a bushel and December co rn 
end ed up 3/4 cent at $7.61-1 / 2 a bushel.
    Along with macroeconomic concerns, soybeans were pressured
after private analytics firm Informa Economics raised its
forecast of U.S. 2013 soybean plantings to 79.987 million acres,
which if realized would be the most on record. 
    "That is obviously negative, if there are no weather
problems in South America," said Mark Schultz, analyst with
Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis.
    With the U.S. Corn Belt coming off its worst summer drought
in half a century, the grains trade is counting on Brazil and
Argentina to produce bumper corn and soybean crops and help
replenish global inventories.
    Traders eyed weather in South America, where planting is
under way. Heavy rains expected in parts of southern Brazil and
northern Argentina could delay corn seeding, Schultz said,
prompting producers to switch some acres to soybeans, which can
be planted later.
    A cold front over southern Brazil will bring torrential
rains to No. 3 soy producing state Rio Grande do Sul on Sunday, 
local forecaster Somar said. 
    Despite Friday's sell-off, CBOT soybeans clung to a gain of
0.8 percent for the week, the first weekly rise in a month, as
the market rebounded from a 3-1/2-month low set Monday. 
    Corn ended the week up 1.2 percent, its biggest weekly rise
since August, and CBOT wheat rose 1.8 percent, its biggest
advance since July. 
        
    WHEAT BUOYED BY UKRAINE EXPORT BAN
    U.S. wheat pared gains as the dollar rose but closed higher
for a third straight day, supported by trade reports that
Ukraine, the world's ninth-largest supplier, would ban exports
of the grain from mid-November. 
    Corn closed narrowly mixed. A portion of Ukraine's wheat is
considered feed and competes with corn, and the country is a
competitor in the corn export market.
    "It's just the beginning of what I think will be more
business coming here (to the United States) and could be the
beginning of another corn rally," said Chris Manns, president of
Chicago-based trade house Traders Group Inc.
    Others said the move was expected because of a
well-publicized supply shrinkage stemming from drought stress on
Ukrainian crops.
    "I don't consider this any significant surprise and expect
market reaction to prove temporary," said Dan Manternach, wheat
analyst for Doane Advisory Services in St. Louis, Missouri.
    "After all, USDA has only forecast 4.0 million tonnes in
exports from the Ukraine in the past two WASDE reports," he
said.
    The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month listed
Ukraine's wheat exports for the 2012/13 marketing year at 4.0
million tonnes, down from 5.44 million the previous year.
    Ukraine would have been the ninth-largest global wheat
exporter and would have accounted for 3 percent of world wheat
exports of 130.87 million tonnes, according to the USDA's data.
    "Some type of limitations were expected at the 5 million
tonne level, whether de facto or de jure, so in and of itself
it's not a big deal," said Bryce Knorr, senior editor for Farm
Futures Magazine.
    "But it's one of a series of events over the last year that
have tightened global wheat inventories around 15 percent from
levels of two or three years ago," he said.  
    
 Prices at 3:19 p.m. CDT (2019 GMT)      
                              LAST      NET    PCT     YTD
                                        CHG    CHG     CHG
 CBOT corn                  761.50     0.75   0.1%   17.8%
 CBOT soy                  1534.25   -11.25  -0.7%   28.0%
 CBOT meal                  463.80     0.50   0.1%   49.9%
 CBOT soyoil                 51.58    -0.72  -1.4%   -1.0%
 CBOT wheat                 872.50     4.00   0.5%   33.7%
 CBOT rice                 1502.00     9.50   0.6%    2.8%
 EU wheat                   262.75     3.00   1.2%   29.8%
 
 US crude                    90.10    -2.00  -2.2%   -8.8%
 Dow Jones                  13,344     -205  -1.5%    9.2%
 Gold                      1720.59   -20.50  -1.2%   10.0%
 Euro/dollar                1.3020  -0.0045  -0.3%    0.6%
 Dollar Index              79.6330   0.2660   0.3%   -0.7%
 Baltic Freight               1010       21   2.1%  -41.9%
 
 (Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris, Sarah McFarlane
in London and Naveen Thukral in Singapore; Editing by Dale
Hudson, William Hardy, Andrew Hay)
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