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GRAINS-Futures ease on macro issues; soy bucks downtrend
* Falling equities, firm dollar spur risk-off day
* Renewed worries about euro zone economic crisis
* Strong cash markets turn soybean futures higher
* Demand rationing keeps pressure on corn
* Wheat down but finding underpinning
(Updates prices, adds details of late upturn in soybean
futures)
By Sam Nelson
CHICAGO, Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. grain futures eased on
Tuesday pressured by a stronger dollar and lower equities amid
renewed concerns about the global economy, with wheat dropping 1
percent, reversing four days of gains.
Soybeans fell early in the day but later bucked the
broad-based commodities selloff and ended up for the second
consecutive trading session.
"The cash meal market was higher and I think that turned
cash beans up too. Some of the sellers (soy futures) early in
the day turned it around when cash firmed up," a cash-connected
trader said.
Soybeans found support from the tight stocks of soybeans,
strong cash soybean and soymeal markets and slow farmer selling
as the U.S. harvest winds down, traders and analysts said.
Corn eased on further signs of tepid export sales of U.S.
corn due to historic high prices and on hints that U.S. cattle
feeders were scaling back operations because of continued poor
profits due to high feed costs.
"Risk-off is in control at the moment, as the weaker equity
markets are casting a long shadow on the markets," said Sterling
Smith, futures specialist for Citigroup.
Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures were
up 0.44 percent, or 6-3/4 cents, at $15.53-1/4 per bushel,
December corn was down 0.69 percent, or 5-1/4 cents, at
$7.56 per bushel, and December wheat was down 1.08
percent, or 9-1/2 cents, at $8.68-3/4 per bushel.
"I would suggest that the outside markets' firming (dollar
and bonds) is a return to risk-off trade in favor once again of
buying the safe-haven assets of the dollar and bonds," said Mike
Zuzolo, analyst for Global Commodity Analytics.
U.S. stocks slid more than 1 percent as poor earnings from
major multinationals heightened fears about the weak global
economy. Stocks were also pressured by Moody's downgrading
credit ratings for five regions in Spain.
The Thomson Reuters Jefferies Commodity Research Bureau
index was down 1.20 percent at 299.8784.
U.S. crude ended 2 percent lower, the dollar index
was up 0.36 percent, gold was down 0.97 percent, or
$16.70 per ounce, and the Dow Jones stock index was down
1.62 percent.
"It could be that some of this weakness in the outside
markets is a post-debate sell-off on fears of potentially seeing
increased trade tensions with China develop ... regardless of
who wins the U.S. presidential election," Zuzolo said.
In their third and final debate on Monday, President Barack
Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney vowed to get tough
on China's trade policies. The U.S. presidential election will
be held Nov. 6.
POTENTIAL BIG SOUTH AMERICAN CROP LENDS PRESSURE
Prospects for a bumper soybean harvest in South America
early in 2013 also contributed pressure to the soy complex,
although losses were slowed by current tight stocks of soy, firm
cash soybean markets, slow farmer selling, and waning harvest of
the 2012 U.S. soybean crop.
Brazilian analyst Safras e Mercado raised its estimate of
the country's soybean production to a record 82.5 million tonnes
from its July estimate of 82.3 million due to farmers' expanding
the area planted with the oilseed.
Corn found lingering pressure from the release on Friday of
a U.S. government cattle-on-feed report that showed the number
of cattle placed in America's feedlots in September was well
below analysts' average estimate and was the lowest September
figure on record. Fewer cattle to feed in upcoming months would
mean lower demand for corn, which remains priced at historically
high levels.
And on Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
said private exporters switched to non-U.S. corn for a
270,000-tonne sale to Mexico, further evidence of a marked
slowdown of exports of U.S. corn.
Another reminder of stiffer global competition for corn
export business surfaced on Tuesday as government data indicated
Brazil's 2012 corn exports had already surpassed an annual
record and the country could replace Argentina as the world's
second-largest exporter of the grain this year.
WHEAT LOWER BUT FINDS UNDERPINNING
Wheat prices were lower as the market fell back slightly
after rising for four consecutive sessions. But prices remained
underpinned by concerns about crops in Australia and the United
States and the prospect of an export ban in Ukraine.
Chicago wheat futures rallied nearly 2 percent last
week after setting a two-month low early that week. The rally
was helped by diminishing prospects for the Australian crop and
expectations that Ukraine could ban exports from Nov. 15.
"The world balance sheet for wheat is tightening with major
exporters, but the United States is still missing out on export
business," said Brett Cooper, a senior markets manager at
FCStone Australia.
Traders said on Friday that Ukraine's agriculture ministry
would ban exports of wheat from Nov. 15 after bad weather hit
the harvest.
Commerzbank, in a market note, pointed to a Ukrainian ban as
a factor supporting European wheat.
"This improves in particular the export prospects for the
EU, which is already making European wheat more expensive - its
price has meanwhile overtaken that of U.S. wheat," Commerzbank
said.
November milling wheat in Paris was up 0.10 percent,
or 0.25 euro, at 263.25 euros per tonne.
Prices at 2:15 p.m. CDT (1915 GMT)
LAST NET PCT YTD
CHG CHG CHG
CBOT corn 756.00 -5.25 -0.7% 16.9%
CBOT soy 1553.25 6.75 0.4% 29.6%
CBOT meal 476.20 5.20 1.1% 53.9%
CBOT soyoil 51.32 -0.34 -0.7% -1.5%
CBOT wheat 868.75 -9.50 -1.1% 33.1%
CBOT rice 1498.00 8.00 0.5% 2.6%
EU wheat 263.25 0.25 0.1% 30.0%
US crude 86.68 -1.97 -2.2% -12.3%
Dow Jones 13,129 -217 -1.6% 7.5%
Gold 1705.29 -23.00 -1.3% 9.0%
Euro/dollar 1.2976 -0.0083 -0.6% 0.2%
Dollar Index 79.9470 0.2950 0.4% -0.3%
Baltic Freight 1109 72 6.9% -36.2%
(Additional reporting by Nigel Hunt in London, Naveen Thukral
in Singapore and Michael Hogan in Hamburg; Editing by Marguerita
Choy and Bob Burgdorfer)
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