Top five themes for Indian stocks, debt and FX in 2013

Mon Dec 31, 2012 4:44pm IST

A broker looks at computer screens at a stock brokerage firm in Mumbai May 10, 2010. REUTERS/Arko Datta/Files

A broker looks at computer screens at a stock brokerage firm in Mumbai May 10, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/Arko Datta/Files

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Reuters Market Eye - TOP FIVE THEMES FOR INDIAN STOCKS IN 2013:

*Acronyms in fiscal and economic reforms: GAAR, GST, STT

* Disinvestment and IPOs: BSE listing could be key

* FIIs vs DIIs: As FII positions become overweight, lack of DII buying would spell trouble

* Valuations and earnings: Not far from historic averages of 15-16 times; earnings to grow 9-10 percent

* Cyclicals to overtake defensives and interest rate-sensitives? Watch global economy, domestic consumer

TOP FIVE THEMES FOR INDIAN DEBT IN 2013:

* Bull-steepening potential on RBI rate cuts

* Call rates to stay above repo rate, OIS inverted in continued liquidity squeeze

* With CRR at near historic lows, OMOs may remain liquidity tool

* Fiscal, economic reforms may be undone by populist 2013/14 budget

* Bond market reforms: withholding taxes, FII limits will be key

TOP FIVE THEMES FOR INDIAN FX IN 2013:

* RBI's interest rate cuts may support

* RBI FX reserves at 6-7 months' import cover

* Global risk and outlook for euro, dollar

* Current account deficit/balance of payments: structural or cyclical?

* FII flows: strong stock buying in 2012 sets up prospect of falling inflows

(Reporting by Rafael Nam)

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