REFILE-MARKET EYE-In foreign frenzy for Indian stocks, watch dollar returns

Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:38am IST

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(Corrects to add dropped words 'at least' in first bullet
point)
* Foreign net inflows into Indian stocks reached 208.1 billion
rupees ($3.90 billion) as of Jan. 30, the strongest January
since at least 1998 and a seventh consecutive month of net
purchases.
* The strong buying has cheered domestic investors after Indian
stocks attracted foreign net buying of $24.4 billion in 2012,
although that came on the back of heavy selling in 2011.
* Whether those flows will continue this year has been a big
question mark as valuations -- currently at around 14 P/E
forwards -- catch up to historic averages of around 16.
* Credit Suisse has an interesting take: despite the strong
foreign inflows, Indian stock markets ranked 35th out of the 50
largest global markets this year as of Jan. 13 in terms of U.S.
dollar returns and 38th over the past 12 months.
* Credit Suisse estimates that by mid-February, Indian stocks
could rank 42nd on a year-to-date basis and 44th on a 12-month
basis.
* "This has important lessons in our view: that India's absolute
performance is likely the result of a global move into equities,
and not so much due to 'cyclical recovery' or 'bottom in
earnings'," Credit Suisse writes in a note.
* "For the next move up or down, therefore, one must look at
global triggers more than domestic ones," it adds.

 (rafael.nam@thomsonreuters.com /
manoj.dharra@thomsonreuters.com)
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