Statistical twist to help 2012/13 growth look better

NEW DELHI Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:17pm IST

An Indian woman laborer and her daughter break bricks using a hammer at a construction site in Chandigarh March 8, 2003. REUTERS/Ajay Verma/Files

An Indian woman laborer and her daughter break bricks using a hammer at a construction site in Chandigarh March 8, 2003.

Credit: Reuters/Ajay Verma/Files

Related Topics

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's growth rate for the fiscal year ending in March will receive a slight statistical boost due to a downward revision to 2011/12 economic growth, a senior government official said on Thursday.

India has lowered its estimate for gross domestic product growth in 2011/12 to 6.2 percent from 6.5 percent, a government statement said on Thursday, increasing the base effect calculating the current year's growth.

Ashish Kumar, a senior official at the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, said the 5.4 percent economic growth for the first half of 2012/13 would also be revised upward.

"The GDP number for 2011/12 has been revised down as the previous year's growth number has been revised up after getting latest data on industrial and fishing production for that period," Kumar said.

The government is due to release advance growth estimates for 2012/13 on February 7.

The Reserve Bank of India has forecast growth of 5.5 percent for the year, while Finance Minister P. Chidamabaram has forecast 5.7 percent.

Private economists and the Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, have often complained about the frequent revisions made to key indicators as they affect policy-making and forecasting.

"The volatility in data revisions is quite disturbing though we realise it is an onerous task. It raises questions about the reliability of data," said Jyotinder Kaur, an economist at HDFC Bank, India's second-largest private lender.

"However, the saving grace is that trend in numbers remain in the same direction," Kaur said.

The Central Statistics Office revised up economic growth for 2010/11 fiscal year to 9.3 percent from 8.4 percent, while manufacturing growth was revised up to 9.7 percent, and farm output to 8.8 percent for that period.

(Reporting by Manoj Kumar; writing by Malini Menon; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)

FILED UNDER:
Comments (0)
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.

  • Most Popular
  • Most Shared

REUTERS SHOWCASE

Earnings Season

Earnings Season

Wipro sees rosier end to year as U.S. clients spend.  Full Article 

DLF Appeals

DLF Appeals

DLF seeks interim relief from capital market ban  Full Article 

Business Climate

Business Climate

Fears for tough penalties grow as India cleans up business  Full Article 

New Email Service

New Email Service

Google launches new email service dubbed "Inbox".  Full Article 

Falling Oil Prices

Falling Oil Prices

Indian consumers respond to softer oil, food prices  Full Article 

Pollution Levels

Pollution Levels

Delhi braces for worst air quality this Diwali week.  Full Article 

Book Keeping

Book Keeping

RBI fires warning shots on companies' lack of FX hedging.  Full Article 

Policy Repo Rate

Policy Repo Rate

Most external members suggested rate cut in RBI's Sept review.  Full Article 

Reuters India Mobile

Reuters India Mobile

Get the latest news on the go. Visit Reuters India on your mobile device.  Full Coverage