GRAINS-Wheat up for 3rd day on weather, U.S. exports

Thu Apr 4, 2013 6:15am IST

SYDNEY, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat futures rose for the
third consecutive session on Thursday, after the biggest daily
rise in more than six months in the previous session, on
concerns over dry weather and expectations for strong U.S.
export demand.
    Gains over three days have topped more than 5 percent,
recouping around half of the losses from the previous two
sessions when the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast for
larger-than-expected stock rattled prices.
         
    FUNDAMENTALS  
    * Chicago Board Of Trade May wheat rose 0.79 percent
to $7.02 a bushel, having closed up 3.84 percent on Wednesday,
the biggest jump for the front-month contract since September
28, 2012.
    * May soybeans rose 0.11 percent to $13.81-3/4 a
bushel, having closed down 0.99 percent on Wednesday.
    * May corn rose 0.19 percent to $6.32-3/4 a bushel,
having gained 0.16 percent in the previous session.
    * Corn and wheat rebounded from losses as a result of the
U.S. Department of Agriculture report last week, which surprised
investors with estimates of big U.S. corn and wheat stockpiles.
    * Wheat supported by concerns over dry conditions across
U.S. Plains. Welcome rains are forecast for the region this week
but may miss the southwestern portion of the belt.
    * U.S. wheat demand seen firming. China's state-owned
agricultural trading company, COFCO, has complained about the
baking performance of some Canadian spring wheat shipments and
suggested it may import more U.S. spring wheat instead.
 
    * A wave of cold weather across France in the past weeks
could hit grain crop yields by 5 to 6 percent if it lasts beyond
mid-April, a leading scientist at the French National Institute
for Agricultural Research (INRA) said on Wednesday.
 
    * Commodity funds sold an estimated 81,000 corn contracts in
the three sessions after the report's release, and open interest
in CBOT corn fell by more than 40,000 contracts this week. By
Wednesday, fund liquidation appeared to have slowed but
continued to hang over the market.
    * Light pressure stemmed from news that private analytics
firm Informa Economics raised its estimates of 2012/13 corn
production in Argentina and Brazil and 2013/14 production in
China. 
    * Informa estimated Brazil's 2012/13 corn crop, which is
currently being harvested, at 71.95 million tonnes, up from 71.6
million previously, and Argentina's corn harvest at 25.3 million
tonnes, up from 25.0 million previously.
    * Soybeans fell on technical selling and concerns about feed
demand in China, the world's top soy buyer.
    * Chinese state media on Wednesday announced two more cases
of a new strain of bird flu, including one death, bringing to
nine the number of confirmed human infections from the
previously unknown flu type. 
         
    MARKET NEWS  
    * The yen held near one-month highs against the dollar early
in Asia on Thursday, with investors adopting a cautious stance
as they waited to see just how aggressive the Bank of Japan will
be in tackling deflation.  
    * Oil prices fell 3 percent on Wednesday in the steepest
daily drop in five months, as U.S. crude inventories rose to
their highest since 1990 and as weak economic data weighed on
the outlook for demand.  
    * U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 index
posting its biggest daily decline in more than a month, after a
weaker-than-expected survey of private employers raised concerns
about the strength of the economy.  
    
    DATA/EVENTS (GMT) 
0200   Bank of Japan rate decision              
0743   Italy       Markit/ADACI Services PMI    
0748   France      Markit Services PMI          
0753   Germany     Markit Services PMI          
0758   Euro zone   Markit Services PMI          
0900   Euro zone   Producer prices              
1145   European Central Bank rate decision      
1230   ECB President Mario Draghi holds news conference 
1230   U.S.        Weekly jobless claims         
1430   Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks 
    
    
  Grains prices at  0006 GMT
  Contract        Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg MA 30   RSI 
  CBOT wheat     702.00     5.50  +0.79%    +4.66%     710.11   47
  CBOT corn      642.75     1.25  +0.19%    +0.35%     699.57   19
  CBOT soy      1381.75     1.50  +0.11%    -0.88%    1437.43   28
  CBOT rice      $15.70    $0.04  +0.29%    -0.44%     $15.30   73
  WTI crude      $94.41   -$0.04  -0.04%    -2.86%     $93.29   44
  Currencies                                                
  Euro/dlr       $1.285   $0.000  +0.01%    +0.26%
  USD/AUD         1.045   -0.001  -0.06%    +0.08%
  Most active contracts
  Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
  RSI 14, exponential
 
 (Reporting by Colin Packham; Editing by Ed Davies)
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