Morgan Stanley cuts 2013, 2014 gold, silver price forecasts

Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:27pm IST

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Gold rings are displayed for sale at a Bao Tin Minh Chau gold shop in Hanoi June 21, 2013.

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REUTERS - Morgan Stanley lowered its gold and silver price forecasts citing the possibility of reduced U.S. Federal Reserve monetary stimulus or outright withdrawal from the current quantitative easing program.

"With investor demand for safe-haven assets waning against the backdrop of a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. bond yields, market conditions for gold and silver have become markedly less favourable," the bank said in a note.

The bank cut its 2013 gold price forecast by 5 percent to $1,409 an ounce and its 2014 estimate by 16 percent to $1,313.

Morgan Stanley lowered its 2013 silver price forecast by 14 percent to $23.39 an ounce and its 2014 estimate by 29 percent to $21.01 an ounce.

The bank maintained its bullish view on palladium, raising its 2013 price forecast by 1 percent to $743 an ounce, as it expects auto sector demand to remain robust.

Morgan Stanley also downgraded the whole base metal sector saying growing oversupply and excess capacity was cause for caution.

The bank, however said, the market consensus on downside risks to copper prices was too bearish, and the metal remains its preferred exposure in a challenging sector.

The bank lowered its 2013 nickel price forecast by 7 percent to $7.23 per pound, tin by 7 percent to $10.08 per pound, copper by 3 percent to $3.42 per pound and aluminum by 2 percent to $0.89 per pound.

(Reporting by Shrutee Sarkar in Bangalore)

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