Japan recovery on track, BOJ could ease again by next year: Reuters poll

TOKYO Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:10pm IST

1 of 2. A pedestrian walks past the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, May 22, 2013.

Credit: Reuters/Yuya Shino

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TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economic recovery is expected to remain on track this year thanks to public works projects and strong consumer spending but will slow the following fiscal year due to an expected increase in the sales tax, a Reuters poll showed.

However, consumer prices are expected to fall short of the Bank of Japan's goal, and there is a 60 percent chance that the central bank could expand asset purchases by the middle of next year, the poll showed.

The world's third-largest economy is forecast to grow 2.6 percent in the fiscal year to March 2014, a Reuters poll of 21 economists showed. The survey conducted August 13-16 was little changed from the July poll.

Growth is expected to slow to 0.6 percent in the following fiscal year as an increase in the sales tax to 8 percent from 5 percent planned in April 2014 will slow consumer spending. That compares with a forecast for 0.5 percent growth from last month's poll.

"In 2013 government spending and consumption will lead growth, while in 2014 exports and capital expenditure will be the main drivers," said Masayuki Kichikawa, chief Japan economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Securities.

"There will be fluctuations due to exchange rates and unemployment, but it's possible for inflation to reach about 1 percent."

Japan's core consumer prices will rise 0.9 percent for the fiscal year starting April 2014 and 0.9 percent for fiscal 2015, excluding the effect of an expected sales tax hike, according to the poll.

In comparison, the BOJ's latest forecasts are for a 1.3 percent rise and a 1.9 percent increase, respectively.

The BOJ overhauled monetary policy in April in a bold move to pull Japan out of 15 years of mild deflation.

The central bank's target is around 2 percent inflation in about two years, but the gap between forecasts in the Reuters poll and the BOJ's forecasts shows that economists doubt this target can be meet.

Economists say there is a 60 percent chance that the BOJ will ease monetary policy further by mid-2014, according to the median from 17 respondents.

Should the BOJ do that, it is likely to increase asset purchases by 10 trillion yen ($102.2 billion) and focus its purchases on exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the poll showed.

Under the BOJ's new policy framework, which it introduced in April, the central bank plans to expand the monetary base by 60 to 70 trillion yen per year.

The BOJ pledged to buy 50 trillion yen in government bonds per year, purchase 1 trillion yen of ETFs and 30 billion yen in real-estate investment trusts per year.

($1 = 97.8350 Japanese yen)

(Polling by Snehashish Das; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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