UN draft stresses risk of global warming, from economy to health

OSLO Fri Nov 8, 2013 6:43pm IST

A view of the lake formed by meltwater from the Pastoruri glacier, as seen from atop the glacier in Huaraz, September 19, 2013. REUTERS/Mariana Bazo/Files

A view of the lake formed by meltwater from the Pastoruri glacier, as seen from atop the glacier in Huaraz, September 19, 2013.

Credit: Reuters/Mariana Bazo/Files

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OSLO (Reuters) - Global warming poses a mounting threat to health, economic growth, crops and water supplies, according to a draft report by top scientists that puts unprecedented emphasis on the risks of a changing climate.

A leaked 29-page draft by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), about the impacts of rising temperatures and due for release in March 2014, mentions "risk" 139 times against just 41 in its last assessment in 2007.

The increased stress on risk may make the case for cutting greenhouse gas emissions clearer both to policymakers and the public by making it sound like an insurance policy for the planet, analysts say.

Many governments, meeting in Warsaw from November 11-22 for U.N. talks on climate change, have long pleaded for greater scientific certainty before making billion-dollar investments in everything from flood barriers to renewable energies.

But certainty is elusive in climate science, as it is in predicting anything from the weather to Wall Street.

"The IPCC has transitioned to what I consider to be a full and rich recognition that the climate change problem is about managing risk," Christopher Field, co-chair of the IPCC group preparing the report, told Reuters.

The report, posted on a climate sceptical website "nofrakkingconsensus" on November 1, resembles a previous draft that warns that parts of society and nature are more vulnerable than expected to climate change.

MORE CERTAINTY

Field, a professor at Stanford University, also said there was more certainty about many aspects of climate change than in 2007. He cautioned the draft was subject to change in editing.

It says, for instance, that a rise of temperatures of more than 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times could lead to economic losses of between 0.2 and 2.0 percent of global income.

It also says that warming will exacerbate threats to health, damage yields of major crops in many areas and lead to more floods. It could also exacerbate poverty and economic shocks that are root causes of violent conflicts.

"Responding to climate-related risks involves making decisions and taking actions in the face of continuing uncertainty about the extent of climate change and the severity of impacts in a changing world," the draft says.

The panel's credibility is under extra scrutiny, for its last report in 2007 wrongly exaggerated the melt of Himalayan glaciers. Several reviews said that this error, however, did not undermine the key findings in 2007.

James Painter, of the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at Oxford University, said that the focus on risk may make the panel's message clearer.

"More risk language helps to shift the public debate away from the idea that decisions should be delayed until absolute certainty is obtained - something that may never be achieved."

He said politicians and businesses were used to making decisions based on risks. And many people insure their homes against fire even though the risks of a blaze are small.

Field said the report tries to capture a wide range of risks, including highly unlikely events that might have a major impact. "That's the way risk is generally formulated if you are an insurance company or figuring out an anti-terrorism policy."

The report is the second in a four-part IPCC assessment meant to guide governments that have promised to agree a pact in 2015 to slow climate change. The first, in September, raised the probability that most global warming is man-made to at least 95 percent from 90 in 2007. (Editing by Mark Heinrich)

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Comments (1)
wsluper wrote:
Over the past 75 years, global temperatures have increased by about .5 degrees Centigrade. Since the beginning of the Industrial revolution, with all the billions of tons of carbon dioxide released, there has been an increase in the atmospheric content of carbon dioxide of only about one part per ten thousand.

The warming has happened mostly in the northern latitudes, Alaska, the Canadian Arctic and parts of Siberia, but with the exception of Greenland, and Antarctica, which have not warmed. So far, the warming and increased carbon dioxide have resulted in longer growing seasons and increased crop yields.

There is no doubt that global warming is occurring, the question is what’s causing it: mankind, natural cycles or both.

Global warmists believe that the climate is warming due to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Following are certain statistics about CO2, which might throw this conclusion into question:

1. CO2 is a trace gas in the atmosphere comprising only four parts per ten thousand.
2. CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas, composing only 4% of all greenhouse gases, as compared to 95% for water vapor and 1% for other trace gasses.
3. Perhaps most importantly, CO2 is a weak greenhouse gas, roughly one-fifth as effective as water vapor at retaining heat.

Given the above, it is unlikely that CO2 has played as large a role in the warming of the earth as believed by most global warmists.

Many deniers of anthropogenic global warming believe that the current warming trend is part of a larger historical cycle of warming and cooling. We know historically that there was a Roman Warming Period that lasted from 200BC to 400AD and a Medieval Warming Period from 950AD to 1250AD, both of which had temperatures that were arguably as warm or warmer than those of today. We also had little ice ages, the last of which ended in 1850.

In conclusion, global warming is caused by both mankind and nature, but probably more by nature than mankind.

Nov 08, 2013 8:20pm IST  --  Report as abuse
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