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REFILE-FXOUTLOOK-US dollar rally likely to continue week ahead

Fri Feb 8, 2008 10:22pm IST
 
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NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar's recent rally is likely to continue in the week ahead as investors stay focused on the likelihood of lower interest rates and slowing economies in Europe.

While the big fear, based on recent economic data, has been that the U.S. economy will stall, much of that concern has already been priced into currency markets, analysts say.

Now the focus is shifting to bad news elsewhere around the world, particularly after an interest rate cut from the Bank of England, and relatively mild comments on monetary policy from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, this week.

Those factors allowed the U.S. dollar to have its best week since June 2006 by some measures.

"The market has priced in a lot of negative news from the U.S.," said Meg Browne, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "But reading the ECB there has been a slight shift away from their hawkish stance with a focus more on growth, and the market is now trying to figure out when the ECB cut will be."

The European Central Bank left benchmark borrowing costs unchanged at 4.0 percent on Thursday, but ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said euro zone economic growth risks are to the downside, signaling lower interest rates this year. Trichet made his comments in a post-meeting press conference on Thursday.

The euro fell 2.1 percent against the dollar <EUR=> for the week, it's worst week since June 2006.

"We have seen a basic change (from the ECB) and this is what the market has been waiting for," said Joe Trevisani, chief market analyst at FX Solutions in Saddle River, New Jersey.  Continued...

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