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惠誉授予中国物流资产‘B’的评级,展望稳定
June 30, 2017 / 1:57 AM / 2 months ago

惠誉授予中国物流资产‘B’的评级,展望稳定

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: China Logistics Property Holdings Co., Ltd here HONG KONG/SHANGHAI, June 29 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年6月22日发布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1025570">Fitch Assigns CNLP's Rating at 'B', Outlook Stable 惠誉评级已为中国的高标仓储企业中国物流资产控股有限公司(中国物流资产)授予‘B’级的长期外币发行人违约评级,展望为稳定。惠誉同时授予中国物流资产‘B’级的高级无 抵押评级,回收率评级为‘RR4’。 中国物流资产的评级受到对高标仓储的强劲行业需求、公司在全国的地域覆盖以及广泛的网络的支撑。作为中国长江三角洲地区最大的物流企业之一,公司还将从其在该区域的优势中 获益。然而,规模较小、利息覆盖率低于1.0倍(2016年为0.57倍)、持续需要以融资满足资本开支限制了公司的评级。中国物流资产依靠债务进行扩张意味着其财务灵活 性较低,因此是另一个评级限制因素。 关键评级驱动因素 行业增长、区域不平衡:中国的高标仓储行业仍然欠发达,因此具有巨大的潜力,截至2015年底,高标仓储仅占仓储供应总量10亿平方米的2%-3%,与美国逾20%的渗透 率形成鲜明对比。过去十年间,该行业快速增长,并受到电子商务领域2011-2015年间高于40%的年复合增长的推动。根据CBRE研究报告,2017年,电子商务(包 括相关第三方物流)在新增仓储需求中的占比可能达50%。 但是,有利的行业展望及较高的投资回报吸引了大量新进入者,以至于2016年中国部分二线城市开始出现过剩的迹象,尤其是在中国西部地区,如成都、重庆和武汉。另一方面, 惠誉预计,由于土地供应有限,一线城市的租金将维持稳定,并将取得3%-6%的租金上涨。我们预计在2017年,不同城市的租金可能存在差异,三四线城市的租金增长将比较 疲软。 网络效应强劲,主要集中于长江三角洲地区:中国物流资产是中国十大高标仓储企业之一,已完工物流设施占地面积逾2000万平方米。公司在长江三角洲地区的实力更强,已完工 建筑面积的30%-40%集中于浙江和江苏省——其中仅苏州市占比就在20%-30%。京东是中国物流资产的最大客户,约占公司2016年总收入的31%;已完工总建筑面 积的34%由具有多个地址的租户占用。市场竞争仍将会十分激烈,但惠誉认为,该行业将逐渐由具有强大网络和稳固客户关系的大型企业主导。 规模小、占有率降低:2016年,中国物流资产的经常性EBITDA为1700万美元,远低于行业领先企业普洛斯(BBB+/稳定)于截至2017年3月末的财年内所取得 的7.72亿美元的ETBIDA。2016年,公司的EBITDA利润率较低,仅为40%,主要原因是规模较小。公司的已完工和“稳定”物流资产的租用率从2014年的9 7.35%下降至2016年的86.6%。由于2016年新项目的租用率相对较低,惠誉预计2017年稳定资产的租用率将继续降低,这将对公司的ETBIDA利润率和扩张 的速度造成压力。公司对“稳定项目”的定义是运营超过12个月或取得90%租用率的项目。 资本开支高、利息覆盖率低:2016年,公司的经常性EBITDA利息覆盖仅为0.57倍(不含与首次公开上市相关的一切费用)。该比率可能在2017年微跌,因为及时2 017年的EBTIDA翻倍,在公司以传统债务融资替换所有股权类混合工具之后,利息支付将扩大一倍以上。惠誉预计,在公司80%以上的资产稳定后,2019年末,覆盖率 将上升至1倍以上。然而,如果市场需求或供应关系发生任何显着变化,可能会导致公司利息覆盖率的改善延后。 杠杆率低:截至2016年末,中国物流资产的贷款价值比(净债务与投资物业资产之比)较低,为26%。但是,惠誉预计杠杆率缓冲空间将较小,因为公司的无抵押资产与无抵押 债务覆盖率之比仅为1.1倍,并将在未来三年保持在1倍左右。截至2016年底,公司共有15亿人民币的无抵押投资物业,而其境外无抵押债务增至14亿人民币。 评级考量摘要 中国物流资产的业务状况符合‘B+’/‘BB-’类评级的标准,但其经常性EBITDA利息覆盖率仅0.6倍,符合‘B-’类评级的标准,因此最终评级为‘B’。公司仍远 落后于受评‘BB-’的同业企业,如利息覆盖率为1.3倍、资产质量更高的丽丰控股有限公司(BB-/稳定);以及利息覆盖率为2.5倍的PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk(BB-/正面),该公司受益于其高质量商场,但受到规模小和开发物业风险敞口的限制。 公司的财务状况与PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk(KJIA,B+/稳定)相比较弱,KIJA的经常性EBITDA来自其长期的售电收入以及与国有企业PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara(PLN,BBB-/正面)的采购合同,其利息覆盖率持续高于1倍,因电厂维修而存在暂时波动。然而,由于中国电子商务行业的高速增长带来较大需求,中国物流 资产的扩张速度比KIJA更快。惠誉估计,2019-2020年间,公司的财务状况将更接近‘B’评级,具体将取决于市场状况以及公司新项目的进展情况。公司的财务状况弱 于其他投资物业企业的原因还包括物流地产行业的回款周期较长以及公司的快速扩张。 关键评级假设 本发行人评级研究中惠誉的关键评级假设包括: - 2017-2018年,已完工和已稳定资产的租用率微跌至86%,因为尚未稳定资产的租用率降低。 - 2017-2018年的有效租金增长率为2%。 - 2017-2018年,已完工的净可出租总面积达260万平方米和350万平方米。 - 2017年和2018年,EBITDA利润率分别提升至49%和59%。 评级敏感性 可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取正面评级行动的未来发展因素包括 - 已完工和稳定资产的租用率稳定在80%以上 - 经常性EBITDA与利息覆盖率之比保持在1.2倍以上 - 净债务与经常性EBTIDA之比保持在10倍以下(2016年为27.8倍) 可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取负面评级行动的未来发展因素包括 - 经常性EBTIDA与利息覆盖率之比未取得显着改善 - 未能获得可用于扩张的资金,或流动性状况恶化 - 业务状况弱化,体现在租用率大幅下降,或租金收入持续降低 流动性 流动性较弱:截至2016年末,中国物流资产共有约20亿人民币的约当现金,短期债务约达6.04亿人民币。2016年6月的首次公开上市带来的30亿人民币股权收益增强 了公司的流动性。但是,惠誉预计,在未来三年内,公司将依靠资本市场债务、更多的债务置换、或出售土地来支撑其每年20亿-30亿人民币的资本开支。 联系人: 首席分析师 Winnie Guo(郭莹) 联席董事 +852 2263 9969 惠誉国际评级有限公司 香港中环德辅道中68号 万宜大厦19楼 第二分析师 Chloe He(贺丹) 联席董事 +86 21 5097 3015 评级委员会主席 Su Aik Lim(林树毅) 高级董事 +852 2263 9914 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 详情参见<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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