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惠誉将绿地的评级下调至‘BB’级,展望为负面
June 30, 2017 / 8:13 AM / 3 months ago

惠誉将绿地的评级下调至‘BB’级,展望为负面

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG/SHANGHAI, June 30 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年6月14日发布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1025082">Fitch Downgrades Greenland to 'BB'; Outlook Negative 惠誉评级已将中国地产商绿地控股集团有限公司(绿地)的长期外币和本币发行人违约评级由‘BB+’级下调至‘BB’级,展望为负面。惠誉同时将绿地的高级无抵押评级以及其 所有未尝债券的评级均下调至‘BB’级。 此次发行人评级的下调是在惠誉将绿地的独立评级由‘BB’级下调至‘BB-’级之后进行的,并按照惠誉母子公司关联性评级标准上调了一个子级,以反映绿地与其最终所有者— —上海市国家资产监督员管理委员会(国资委)之间中等的关联性。 独立评级的下调是由于绿地2016年激进地扩张土地储备导致其杠杆率持续高于60%。按照净债务与调整后存货之比衡量,2016年底时绿地的杠杆率达到67%。评级展望为 负面反映出惠誉认为绿地2017年预售商业地产的回款可能低于我们此前的看法,这可能使杠杆率持续高于65%——在该水平惠誉可能考虑进一步采取负面评级行动。 关键评级驱动因素 去杠杆举步维艰:惠誉预期2017年和2018年杠杆率可能高于65%。即使在2017年前5个月内公司的权益土地收购放缓至约80亿人民币,施工支出可能仍会较高。绿地 一直在降低商业地产销量的比重,由2015年的49%降至2016年的36%。现金回款率从2015年的59%提高至2016年的79%,但仍然落后于2016年的行业平 均水平90%。回款率低是由于绿地对销售回款速度略低的商业地产的敞口较高。 施工支出高企:惠誉认为,绿地的高速施工将继续对杠杆率造成压力。2016年,绿地的新开工总建筑面积达1930万平方米,超过了1490万平方米的土地收购。2016年 完工的总建筑面积为2270万平方米,增速高于新开工和新增土地面积。公司激进的施工速度导致2016年的已完工可供销售的房屋显着增加,从2015年的490亿人民币增 至930亿人民币。未售出的已完工房屋的累积可能造成现金外流,并且未售出的已完工房屋逐渐上升的趋势还有可能反映地产销售的不确定性。 合同销售额增长将放缓:惠誉预计,2017年,绿地的合同销售额将维持在2800亿人民币左右,2017年下半年,因中国政府继续实施越来越严格的措施来抑制地产价格上涨 和限制住宅地产交易,公司的合同销售额增速将放缓。2016年,合同销售额增长11%至2550亿人民币。2017年早期,这一趋势继续保持,2017年第一季度,合同销 售额同比增长17.9%。 非地产业务加大杠杆率压力:惠誉认为,绿地的非地产业务仍不成熟,并且需要由地产业务产生的现金流为其提供资金。绿地对金融机构、消费品和基础设施行业进行了大量投资。这 些投资均使杠杆率升高。 规模效应:按照合同销售额衡量,绿地是中国的顶尖地产开发商之一。其地产开发业务充分多元化,遍布中国逾40个城市及海外。公司计划在未来数年内维持2000亿人民币以上 的年合同销售额。 一个子级的母公司支持:绿地与上海市政府具有较强的关联性。公司始终是上海最大的地产公司,并是上海市国企中税收收入的主要贡献者之一。惠誉认为,拥有绿地46%股份的上 海国资委将继续是最大的股东,并将继续影响绿地高质量拿地能力。 评级考量摘要 绿地的评级受到其业务状况——包括规模(按照合同销售额和EBITDA衡量)和市场地位的支撑。但是,公司的杠杆率高于大部分受评‘BB’类的同业企业,并且由于其商业地 产细分领域的风险敞口较高,公司的合同销售效率相对较低(以合同销售额与总债务之比计算),均限制了公司的评级。绿地的同业企业,如中国恒大集团(B+/稳定)和融创中国 控股有限公司(BB/负面),也同样积极地扩大其规模,并且均排在中资住宅地产商的前10位。 绿地的杠杆率与恒大一样高,但是绿地具有大额的应收销售款,可以降低其高杠杆率。作为国有企业,绿地在以低成本收购土地方面具有较大优势,特别是地方政府积极开发的城市新 区。这使绿地的业务状况优于恒大和融创。 关键评级假设 本发行人评级研究中惠誉的关键评级假设包括: - 合同销售额在2017年增长13%,在2018年降至5%。 - 2017-2019年期间,商业地产的销售额占销售总额的40%,住宅销售额占其余的60% - 2017-2019年期间,购地款约为750亿至900亿人民币。 评级敏感性 正面:可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取正面评级行动的未来发展因素包括: 如果未来12个月内没有达到负面标准,独立评级的展望可能被调整为稳定。 可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取负面评级行动的未来发展因素包括: 净债务与调整后存货之比维持在65%以上(惠誉估计2016年为67%) 地产EBITDA利润率维持在15%以下(惠誉估计2016年为16%) 合同销售额与总债务之比维持在0.8倍以下(惠誉估计2016年为0.9倍) 有迹象显示来自母公司的支持弱化。 流动性 截至2016年底,绿地共有600亿人民币的现金,不足以覆盖其960亿人民币的短期债务。但是,绿地具有1050亿人民币的可用银行额度,并且有能力通过多个国内渠道募 集资金。 完整评级行动列表 绿地控股集团有限公司 - 长期外币发行人违约评级从‘BB+’/负面下调至‘BB’/负面 - 长期本币发行人违约评级从‘BB+’/负面下调至‘BB’/负面 - 高级无抵押评级从‘BB+’ 下调至‘BB’ - 30亿美元的中期票据计划的评级从‘BB+’ 下调至‘BB’ - 20亿美元的中期票据计划的评级从‘BB+’ 下调至‘BB’ 绿地香港控股有限公司所发行的、具有来自绿地的维好协议的 - 4.5亿美元、票息率3.875%、2019年到期的高级票据的评级从‘BB+’ 下调至‘BB’ - 5.0亿美元、票息率4.375%、2017年到期的高级票据的评级从‘BB+’ 下调至‘BB’ - 15亿美元、票息率5.5%、2018年到期的高级票据的评级从 ‘BB+’ 下调至‘BB’ Greenland Global Investment Limited所发行的、由绿地提供担保的 - 5.0亿美元、票息率3.5%、2017年到期的高级票据的评级从‘BB+’ 下调至‘BB’ - 4.0亿美元、票息率3.75%、2019年到期的高级票据的评级从‘BB+’ 下调至‘BB’ - 3.0亿美元、票息率3.5%、2019年到期的高级票据的评级从‘BB+’ 下调至‘BB’ - 6.0亿美元、票息率5.875%、2024年到期的高级票据的评级从‘BB+’ 下调至‘BB’ 联系人: 首席分析师 Winnie Guo(郭莹) 联席董事 +852 2263 9969 惠誉国际评级有限公司 香港中环德辅道中68号 万宜大厦19楼 第二分析师 Chloe He(贺丹) 联席董事 +86 21 5097 3015 评级委员会主席 Su Aik Lim(林树毅) 高级董事 +852 2263 9914 Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com; Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 详情参见<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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