Forget "peak oil", West's demand growth peaking

By Alex Lawler and Peg Mackey

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil demand may never return to growth in the United States, Europe and parts of Asia, easing the strain on long-term supplies and prices as emerging countries burn ever more fuel.

The surge in oil to a record near $150 a barrel last year heightened concern the world will run out of crude and supply will start to dwindle -- a theory known as "peak oil".

Now a deepening recession and oil price collapse have raised the issue of whether demand, not supply, is nearing its peak.

Oil use in the industrialised countries that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), such as the United States, Japan and western Europe may have peaked already, according to some analysts.

"There is a reasonable likelihood that OECD oil demand has peaked," said Peter Davies, former chief economist at BP Plc who was in charge of preparing BP's annual Statistical Review of World Energy, a standard reference work.

Among OECD economies, the United States had sustained robust oil demand growth due to an expanding economy and less focus on conservation, while western Europe and Japan were posting declines.

U.S. patterns could be about to change as the recession erodes consumption. By the time rich countries return to economic growth, their efforts to use less oil and slow the impact of global warming could be taking hold.

Barack Obama, taking office as the 44th U.S. president, aims to greatly increase alternative energy production in the world's top energy consumer.