POLL - World oil demand to fall far more than thought

By David Sheppard and Joshua Schneyer

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - World oil demand is forecast to fall this year by much more than previously expected, as growth stalls in emerging powerhouses China and India and fuel consumption declines in the developed world.

Estimates see oil growth re-emerging in 2010, but analysts remain divided about how severe this year's demand contraction will be, as the short-term global economic outlook remains clouded.

The latest Reuters poll of 11 analysts, banks and industry groups shows oil consumption will decline by an average of 1.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009 to 84.10 million bpd.

Demand is predicted to recover by 700,000 bpd in 2010, but will remain more than 1 million bpd below the 86 million bpd of demand seen in 2007, the last year consumption grew.

The forecast drop in 2009 oil demand is nearly four times larger than the 430,000 bpd drop analysts had expected in January, when Reuters last polled them.

In the earlier poll, analysts expected consumption in emerging markets to largely offset any contraction in the developed, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development (OECD) nations.

"Demand has been weaker than most of us predicted in emerging markets in the last 6 months," said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch.