World oil demand to grow again next year - IHS CERA

HOUSTON (Reuters) - World oil demand will resume growing next year, returning to pre-recession levels by 2012, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates predicted Tuesday.

The energy research firm said in its quarterly World Oil Watch report it expected demand to grow by 900,000 barrels per day in 2010 from a 2009 low of 83.8 million bpd.

IHS CERA foresees oil demand returning to its 2007 high of 86.5 million bpd by 2012 and rising to 89.1 million bpd in 2014, after the largest drop since the oil crisis of the 1980s.

The rebound to 2007 levels will come after five years because of emerging market demand amid fewer fuel alternatives, said Jim Burkhard, IHS CERA global oil managing director.

Non-OECD countries, including China, will account for 83 percent of demand growth. The big driver will be transportation, for which there are fewer alternatives to oil, he said.

It took nine years for world oil demand to return to 1979 levels after high oil prices triggered major shifts in world energy supply and demand during the 1980s.

Then, the biggest decline in demand for oil came in power generation, in which coal, gas and nuclear were available to substitute for oil, Burkhard said.