POLL - Analysts split on rate rise by end-Jan

By Anurag Joshi

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Analysts are almost evenly split on whether India's central bank will raise interest rates in the next three months, but are unanimous they will be lifted at least once by the end of April, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

In a quarterly policy review on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it would withdraw emergency liquidity measures and increased some loan provisioning requirements, but left its key policy rates unchanged.

Nine out of 20 analysts polled after the RBI's statement expected the central bank to raise its repo rate, at which it lends short-term funds to banks, by up to 50 basis points by end-January, when the next review is due.

Eight out of 20 expected the central bank to raise the reverse repo rate, at which it absorbs funds from the banking system, by up to 50 basis points by end-January.

All 20 analysts expected both rates would have been raised at least once by the end of April, with forecasts of the increases ranging from 25 to 75 basis points.

"A fair amount of growth is a prerequisite for triggering a rate action, which won't happen before April. But a liquidity tightening would precede the rate action," said Shubhada Rao, Chief Economist at Yes Bank.

Sixteen analysts expected an increase in the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the proportion of deposits banks must keep with the central bank, by the end of January.

However, no further increase was seen in the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), the share of deposits banks must hold in government securities. On Tuesday, the RBI raised the SLR to 25 percent from Nov. 7, unwinding a cut to 24 percent made last November.

"Barring clear evidence of a slowing economy, the RBI will eventually need to act tough as well as sound tough if it is not to lose credibility," Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior Asian economist for HSBC in Singapore, said in a report.

"We continue to expect the first CRR hike in January next year, with the repo and reverse rates rising in April," he said.

The central bank next reviews policy on Jan. 29. It releases monetary policy reviews in January, April, July and October but is able to change policy at any time.

Of the six cuts in the repo rate between October 2008 and April this year, only the last was made at a scheduled review.

Following are the responses to the Reuters poll. Analysts were asked whether they expected any changes in policy rates by the end of January and April 2010, and what levels they saw for rates by then.

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FORECAST FOR CHANGES IN 4.75 PCT REPO RATE:

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RESPONDENT BY END-JANUARY BY END-APRIL

Anand Rathi Financial Services 4.75 5.25

Axis Bank 4.75 5.0

Bank of Baroda 5.25 5.50

CRISIL 4.75 5.0

Development Credit Bank 4.75 5.0

HDFC Bank 5.0 n/f

HSBC 4.75 5.0

ICICI Bank 4.75 5.25

ICICI Securities PD 5.0 5.25

IGIDR 5.0 5.25

Indicus Analytics 5.0 5.25

IndusInd Bank 4.75 5.25

JPMorgan 5.0 5.25

Kotak Mahindra Bank 4.75 5.0

MF Global 4.75 5.0

Nomura 5.0 5.25

Reliance Equities 5.0 5.0

Societe Generale 5.0 5.50

Standard Chartered 4.75 5.0

Yes Bank 4.75 5.0

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FORECAST FOR CHANGES IN 3.25 PCT REVERSE REPO RATE:

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RESPONDENT BY END-JANUARY BY END-APRIL

Anand Rathi Financial Services 3.25 3.75

Axis Bank 3.25 3.50

Bank of Baroda 3.75 4.0

CRISIL 3.25 3.50

Development Credit Bank 3.25 3.50

HDFC Bank 3.50 n/f

HSBC 3.25 3.50

ICICI Bank 3.25 3.75

ICICI Securities PD 3.50 3.75

IGIDR 3.25 3.50

Indicus Analytics 3.50 3.75

IndusInd Bank 3.25 3.75

JPMorgan 3.50 3.75

Kotak Mahindra Bank 3.25 3.50

MF Global 3.25 3.50

Nomura 3.50 3.75

Reliance Equities 3.50 3.50

Societe Generale 3.50 3.75

Standard Chartered 3.25 3.50

Yes Bank 3.25 3.50

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FORECAST FOR CHANGES IN 5.0 PCT CASH RESERVE RATIO:

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RESPONDENT BY END-JANUARY BY END-APRIL

Anand Rathi Financial Services 6.0 6.50

Axis Bank 5.25 5.25

Bank of Baroda 5.0 5.50

CRISIL at least 5.25 at least 5.50

Development Credit Bank 5.50 5.50

HDFC Bank 5.0 n/f

HSBC 5.25 5.75

ICICI Bank 5.50 5.50

ICICI Securities PD 5.50 5.50

IGIDR 5.0 5.0

Indicus Analytics 5.25 5.50

IndusInd Bank 5.0 5.50

JPMorgan 5.50 6.0

Kotak Mahindra Bank 5.50 5.75

MF Global 5.25 5.50

Nomura 5.25 5.50

Reliance Equities 5.25 5.50

Societe Generale 5.50 6.0

Standard Chartered expect an increase n/f

Yes Bank 5.25 5.50

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FORECAST FOR CHANGES IN 24 PCT STATUTORY LIQUIDITY RATIO:

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RESPONDENT BY END-JANUARY BY END-APRIL

Anand Rathi Financial Services 25 25

Axis Bank 25 25

Bank of Baroda 25 25

Development Credit Bank 25 25

HDFC Bank 25 n/f

HSBC 25 25

ICICI Bank 25 25

ICICI Securities PD 25 25

IGIDR 25 25

Indicus Analytics n/f n/f

IndusInd Bank 25 25

JPMorgan 25 25

Kotak Mahindra Bank 25 25

MF Global 25 25

Nomura 25 25

Reliance Equities 25 25

Societe Generale 25 25

Standard Chartered 25 25

Yes Bank 25 25

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(Additional reporting by Mumbai Treasury)

(Editing by John Mair)

(For more news on Reuters Money visit www.reutersmoney.in)