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* Analysts say Japan 2020 CO2 target to harm climate talks
* Similarity to existing Kyoto target disappoints
* Recession, lack of voter interest underpin decision
By David Fogarty, Climate Change Correspondent, Asia
SINGAPORE, June 10 Pushed by industry groups to
cut emissions by the minimum and pulled by developing nations
to cut deeply, Japan's prime minister went down the middle, and
in doing so has undermined global climate talks.
Taro Aso's decision on Wednesday to cut Japan's emissions
of planet-warming greenhouse gases by 15 percent below 2005
levels by 2020 showed lack of leadership from a country seen as
a crucial player in the fight against climate change, analysts
The target is barely tougher than Japan's current
commitment under the Kyoto Protocol and is far less than the
25-40 percent reduction below 1990 levels for rich nations
urged by the U.N. Climate Panel.
"I do not believe it is a number that is close to what
Japan needs to do, should do," China's climate ambassador Yu
Qingtai told Reuters on the sidelines of U.N.-led, June 1-12
climate climate talks in Bonn, Germany.
"(Tokyo should) look seriously at what Japan needs to do to
make a fair contribution to international cooperation to fight
Aso described the target as extremely ambitious but Kim
Carstensen, head of WWF's Global Climate Initiative, called it
"When signing the Kyoto Protocol, Japan already committed
to a 6 percent cut from 1990 levels, to be achieved from 2008
to 2012. The new Aso target would mean that Japan effectively
gives dirty industries the freedom to pollute without limits
for eight years," Carstensen said.
The new target is equivalent to a cut of 8 percent below
Japan's 1990 emission levels, and roughly comparable with the
U.S. target that is under discussion, the lower end of the EU
target range and the middle of Australia's range.
NOT STRONG ENOUGH
Analysts say rich nations such as Japan, the world's
fifth-biggest emitter, need to do more to entice developing
nations to take steps to curb their rapidly growing carbon
Failure to do so could mean a weak or no agreement at the
end of the year to brake the pace climate change and offset its
impact, such as more intense storms, rising seas and melting
"These targets are not strong enough to get the world down
the road to avoiding dangerous climate change, and could fall
short of enticing developing countries into the game," said
Frank Jotzo, climate change economist at the Australian
National University in Canberra.
Negotiators are racing to seal a broader climate pact to
replace the Kyoto Protocol in December during a U.N. conference
"Why should poor countries agree to act while the rich are
still refusing to take responsibility?" said Australian Greens
Deputy Leader Senator Christine Milne.
"Our so-called world leaders need to realise that this
year's Copenhagen Conference will not be a success unless it
delivers an agreement to truly protect the climate. Anything
less will be an agreement to fail," she said.
China and India, the world's top and fourth-largest
emitters respectively, demand rich nations sign up to 2020 cuts
of 40 percent below 1990 levels and pledge up to 1 percent of
their economic worth to help poorer nations fight climate
Developing nations, which now emit more than half of
mankind's greenhouse gas pollution, will not be expected to
sign up to legally binding emissions cuts in a new climate
agreement from 2013.
"What Japan proposes is going to have a major impact,
because it is one of the major developed countries. And China
wants to see it set more ambitious goals than Kyoto if China is
going to do more," said Zhang Haibin, an expert on
environmental diplomacy at Peking University in Beijing.
To be fair, Aso faced a tough choice, fearful of driving up
costs for voters ahead of an election and hurting business
during the country's worst recession in more than half a
Japan's biggest business lobby, Nippon Keidanren, supported
a minus 4 percent target on 2005 levels, saying it is the most
reasonable in terms of cost.
Some analysts said Aso gambled it was better to put the
"Issues that are relevant to people's livelihoods should be
discussed, but issues such as international peace or the
environment are unlikely to become a main topic of discussion,"
said Koichi Nakano, associate professor of political science at
Sophia University in Tokyo.
"It's not about pressure from the financial world, but the
underlying issue is that domestic interest is not that high."
(Editing by Michael Urquhart)