OSLO/LONDON May 29 Russia has won rights to
emit or sell licences for extra greenhouse gases equivalent to
France's total annual output, after revisions to Soviet-era data
underpinning a U.N. climate pact, official documents show.
A 2007 review raised Russia's emissions ceiling under the
United Nations' Kyoto Protocol for combating climate change by
107 million tonnes a year to 3.32 billion tonnes -- or 535
million tonnes extra under the pact's five years from 2008-12.
Russia is the world's number three emitter of greenhouse
gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels, behind the United
States and China so revisions to its data can have a big impact.
Russia can either emit more or to sell its emissions rights
on international markets. By contrast, France's total emissions
in 2006 were 541 million tonnes and Britain's 656 million.
The new benchmark, built into Russian emissions data
submitted to the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat this month,
reflects an upwards revision of emissions in 1990, just before
the collapse of the Soviet Union and its smokestack industries.
"The review process was properly managed in terms of the
process and the changes in numbers were done under close
scrutiny by the expert review team," said John Hay, spokesman of
the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, asked by Reuters about the
shift in the Russian baseline.
Russia's target under Kyoto is to stay below 1990 levels
during 2008-12 so a higher base year gives it more leeway to
emit or sell any shortfalls. Russia's emissions were 34 percent
below 1990 levels in 2006 at 2.19 billion tonnes after a plunge
in the early 1990s.
The review adds to past revisions of a Russian benchmark
long estimated at 2.99 billion tonnes -- giving a total 333
million tonnes a year gain. The 2.99 billion figure was still
listed as the 1990 baseline in a U.N. table in November 2007.
Several leading environmentalists and other experts
contacted said they were unaware of the upwards revisions.
Under Kyoto, industrialised nations have binding caps on
greenhouse gas emissions and if they undercut these -- as Russia
is -- they can sell those surplus emissions rights called
assigned amount units (AAUs) to countries that over-shoot.
Environmental groups have dubbed that "hot air" which
undermines Kyoto's main aim of cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
Russia has AAUs to sell mainly because of the collapse of
inefficient Soviet industries, not because Moscow has made extra
Interested buyers are emerging, notably Japan, the
Netherlands, Spain and Ireland, all above their Kyoto targets.
That could cut demand for trade in carbon offsets called CERs
(Certified Emissions Reductions), which are directly linked to
cuts in greenhouse gases.
Growing interest in AAU trading "suggests potential downward
pressure on CERs because that would take out a big chunk of CER
purchases", said Abyd Karmali, Global Head of Carbon Emissions
at Merrill Lynch.
Russia is the biggest emitter bound by Kyoto, meant as a
first step to rein in what the U.N. Climate Panel projects will
be more floods, droughts, heatwaves and rising seas.
The Russian review said that Soviet-era data had
under-estimated emissions from energy industries, manufacturing,
construction and transport. It was reviewed by experts from
Brazil, Germany, Moldova, Australia, Hungary and Kazakhstan.
More than 190 governments have agreed to negotiate a new
treaty to combat climate change by the end of 2009 to succeed
Kyoto. Kyoto obliges 37 industrialised nations to cut emissions
by an average of 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-12.
-- For Reuters latest environment blogs click on:
(Editing by Matthew Jones)